FXUS61 KGYX 250410 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1210 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A stubborn upper low will remain with us into early next week. As a result we will continue with temperatures near normal for this time of year and chances for showers during the afternoon hours. It could potentially turn stormier late in the week, but the range of outcomes is still quite wide. Everything from dry weather to a significant rainfall is on the table depending on how the jet stream interacts with Tropical System Melissa. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Skies will be variably cloudy today as mean troughing over New England continues. There will be no meaningful rainfall but a few showers over the mountains will be possible. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees of normal depending on location. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Temperatures will be in the 30s area-wide tonight but any frost will depend on breaks in the clouds that are expected to be in the area owing to high RH values in the lower to mid levels overnight. In fact it's possible that overnight mins may have to be increased in subsequent forecast issuances. Sunday will be a typical autumn day across northern New England with upper troffing overhead. Mainly cloudy skies with a chance of showers in the afternoon, particularly in the mountains. The highest elevations may experience some snow showers, which are not abnormal for late October. Highs project to be near or slightly below normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message: Quiet and cool to start the period but potentially more stormy to close out the week. Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated at this time. Late in the week...while not likely...there is the potential for a significant rainfall. Forecast Details: Starting the work week temps will remain seasonable. The region will also remain under the influence of the upper low. So while surface high pressure will be nosing into the region...aloft will remain cool and we will be susceptible to diurnal increases in cloud cover. There may also be some showers that will tend to peak in coverage along with peak heating. As the pressure gradient increases towards midweek between continental high pressure and ocean low pressure...northeast winds increase. That is about where the confidence ends...because model guidance differs wildly in precip chances. NBM 25th to 75th percentile spread continues to actually increase with time. Currently over large portions of the forecast area this spread is from 0 to 2.5 inches. The latest ECMWF EPS extreme forecast index shows that heavy rain is not particularly likely...but the outliers in the ensemble suite are significant for this time of year. Given that uncertainty...I see now reason to deviate from the near to slightly above normal PoP vs climatology. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions are expected to prevail though Sunday with the potential for some MVFR conditions at HIE. Otherwise winds look to remain below 10 knots through the weekend. Long Term...VFR conditions to start the period. Around midweek and beyond northeast winds will create an increasingly maritime environment and cloud cover is expected to increase. Depending on the proximity of the storm track this could include VFR CIGs if far enough offshore...or IFR or lower CIGs if the track ends up closer. There will also be the potential for surface wind gusts at or above 25 kt. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA criteria through Sunday. Long Term...Winds and seas will be below SCA thresholds to start the work week. As we approaching midweek the pressure gradient will increase and withit northeast winds. SCA conditions look likely...and there is a low chance (about 1 in 5) of gale force gusts outside of the bays at this time. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Ekster LONG TERM...Legro AVIATION...Ekster/Legro MARINE...Ekster/Legro