FXUS61 KCTP 241929 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 329 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Clouds and rain showers spilling southeast of Lake Erie gradually fade through Saturday; frost/freeze in SE PA * Seasonably cool and dry to start the last week of October * Chilly/showery pattern forecast later next week with potential for increased storminess around Halloween && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Frost/freeze headlines issued tonight for the 7 zones still active in the growing season: Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster. Min temps in the LSV should be a few degrees colder vs. last night under mainly clear skies and lighter winds. Elsewhere, stratocu clouds and passing light rain showers downwind of Lake Erie will be very persistent across the Allegheny Front and Laurel Highlands. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure building eastward through the weekend will back the low level flow and bring increasing subsidence - which spells a gradual shift in the trajectory and eventual end to the lake effect clouds/showers by Sunday. The last weekend of October should end seasonably cool and dry with a mix of clouds and sun. There will be a continued frost/freeze risk, but headlines will depend on 1) if the growing season remains active and if so - 2) for what counties in the LSV. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Early week blocking pattern is expected to evolve/transition toward a deep upper level low over the Eastern U.S. by Halloween. This large scale pattern configuration generally favors below normal temperatures, a showery precipitation regime with some lake enhancement, and breezy/windy conditions. That said, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding how the energy from the west-central U.S. trough and initial Northeast low will interact. For now, expect rain chances to increase by mid to late week with thermal profiles marginally cold enough to potentially support rain/snow or even all snow ptypes over the higher elevations along the Allegheny spine. Depending on the details around a coastal low, gusty to strong winds are also possible and could impact outdoor Halloween trick-or-treat activities. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR cigs persist over the western highlands (BFD/JST) early this aftn, with borderline MVFR/VFR cigs spilling into the central mtns (AOO/UNV/IPT). Broken cigs have even developed over the lower Susq Valley, although cigs are 4-5 kft. Scattered rain showers across the northern and western highlands could spill into the central mtns this afternoon before dissipating across all but far NW PA this evening. Ceilings will gradually lower over the western highlands and central mtns overnight, while the Lower Susq Valley could clear out like the past couple of nights. MVFR cigs appear likely to redevelop overnight at BFD and JST. Outlook... Sat...MVFR cigs possible at BFD and JST early, otherwise mainly VFR. Sun-Mon...Likely VFR. Tue...Restrictions and light rain possible, mainly south. Tue night-Wed...Light rain, restrictions, and breezy northeasterly winds possible areawide. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ036- 063>065. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ057-059- 066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff AVIATION...Evanego