FXUS61 KCTP 201643 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1243 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added gusty wind potential for the convection this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Brief thundershowers possible this afternoon and evening, with wind gusts over 40 mph possible in some of the thundershowers. 2) Widespread rain on Monday, with severe and flash flood risk nearby to our south and east. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Brief thundershowers possible this afternoon and evening, with wind gusts over 40 mph possible in some of the thundershowers. Arrival of low amplitude mid/upper trough combined with weak diurnal buoyancy should allow isolated to scattered low-topped convection to develop this afternoon and evening. CAMS show thundershowers developing over the Allegheny Plateau tracking to the east southeast through the evening. Modestly enhanced west-northwest flow and steep low level lapse rates could support a localized strong wind gust (40-45 mph), but the overall magnitude of the threat appears too limited for damaging wind probs/level 1 SPC categorical (marginal) risk at this time. For the majority of central PA it will be a partly to mostly sunny and pleasant start to the weekend with max temps (generally below historical averages) in the upper 60s NW to around 80F in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Breezy at times also today with wind gusts 20-30 mph from the west/northwest. Winds will diminish tonight with partial clearing and patchy fog into early Sunday morning. Weather conditions for Father's Day look fantastic with astronomical Summer officially starting at 4:24AM Sunday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Widespread rain on Monday, with severe and flash flood risk nearby to our south and east. A wet start to the work week with widespread rain expected on Monday. The heaviest rainfall is most likely between 8AM and 8PM with storm totals in the 0.75-1.50" range. Current probs off the latest ensembles and National Blend indicate 50-80% probs for >1" across most of central PA. Flooding risk is low with greatest risk likely confined to urban areas where locally heavy or repeat downpours could cause some isolated runoff issues. The higher risk for both flash flooding and severe weather appears to be to the south and east (Maryland and far eastern PA) near the warm front and within the warm sector, so we will need to monitor whether those features trend to the north and west. Rain tapers off/ends Monday night. With high pressure building in behind the departing low, Tue and Wed are likely to be generally dry. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR prevails across all Central PA and Susquehanna Valley Airfields today with SCT-BKN fair weather cumulus, in the 3.5-6kft range expected in terms of cloud cover. Flat ridging at the surface and aloft this morning will quickly transition to a subtle mid and upper-level short wave trough sliding across the Commonwealth this afternoon. Near term High Res Model guidance continues to highlight a chance for mid to late afternoon sctd-numerous rain showers and even an isolated low-topped TSRA. These convective elements will be moving Southeastward at 35-40KTs, which will make any impacts very brief and possibly MVFR at worst in the CIG and VSBY departments. Went with the mention of PROB30 -SHRA in the general 18-23Z Sat window. Outlook... Sun...Showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon/evening across the far west, and around or shortly after Midnight over the Central and Eastern portions of the state. Mon...Restrictions possible with a few periods of rain/or showers and thunderstorms. Tue...Lower chances of showers, mainly VFR. Wed...Mainly VFR, watching for precipitation chances though in the evening/overnight && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert AVIATION...Lambert/Bowen