FXUS61 KCTP 201122 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 722 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slight increase in wind gusts for today; otherwise minimal changes from previous forecast cycle. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southwest Pennsylvania mainly late this afternoon into the evening 2) First weekend of Spring warmup precedes rain later on Sunday into Sunday night followed by breezy and much cooler conditions for Monday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southwest Pennsylvania mainly late this afternoon into the evening No change to the SPC outlook for Day 1 which still shows a level 1 out of 5 (marginal) severe t-storm risk across the Upper Ohio Valley into southwest PA. Hires models depict rain expanding from NW to SE this afternoon and evening along/ahead of a cold front. Instability (MUCAPE <500 J/kg) will be limited and confined mainly to locations near and south of I-80. However, strong deep layer shear profiles and steep low level lapse rates will pose an isolated risk of locally strong/severe wind gusts. Rain should exit most of CPA by 06Z with conditions drying out to start the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: First weekend of Spring warmup precedes rain later on Sunday into Sunday night followed by breezy and much cooler conditions for Monday Max temps fcst to rise +10-20 degrees day/day to kickoff the first official weekend of Spring. Highs on Sunday should reach the upper 50s to lower 70s before a period of rain arrives late in the day and lasts through Sunday night. A few t-storms will be possible, with the primary severe risk located in the Ohio Valley. Colder temps bleeding southward behind a cold front could mix/turn rain to snow across the northern tier late Sunday night into early Monday morning. High temps on Monday are projected to be 15 to 25 degrees colder than Sunday and punctuated by a chilly and brisk/gusty NW wind. The rest of next week should feature more temperature swings up and down with occasional light precip. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Increasing mid-to-high clouds become more expansive across much of the region through 18Z Friday with increasing chances of rain showers NW to SE after 18Z Friday. At this time, NBM/GLAMP model guidance outlines widespread MVFR ceilings, with highest chances for IFR conditions at BFD. Based on recent RAP model soundings, there is quite a bit of moisture in the low-levels at BFD after 02Z Saturday, thus increasing confidence in IFR conditions at this juncture. A broken line of TSRA will be possible in the area of JST/AOO between 22Z Fri to 03Z Sat with chances looking less likely further north/east. Given this potential, have continued PROB30s (which matches current forecast and most recent HREF lightning guidance) for this potential with slight timing adjustments. Further adjustments to timing/confidence will likely come in the 18Z TAF package as there still remains some uncertainty with respect to how much instability is present. After SHRA ends (moderate confidence on offset timing), model guidance continues to hold onto MVFR ceilings for much of the area with mixed signals with respect to visibility improvement, thus have trended closer to GLAMP model guidance due to these model differences at this juncture. A brief period of LLWS is also possible (30-50% chance) across western terminals just ahead of this potential, thus have continued low-end LLWS mentions; however, this is an aspect of the forecast remains relatively uncertain in the 12Z TAF package and will need to be hammered down in future cycles. Outlook... Sat...Trending drier, mainly VFR expected. Sun...Rain overspreads north to south, restrictions possible. Mon...Rain gradually tapers off north to south, transition to snow possible mainly north of I-80 (BFD/IPT). Restrictions possible within rain/snow showers. Tue...Mainly dry with VFR conditions. Slight chance of snow shower across N PA late which could bring some restrictions. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical Spring (Vernal Equinox) officially begins today March 20th at 10:46 a.m. && .EQUIPMENT... KCCX radar is offline until further notice as of 1:30am EDT on 03/20/2026. Technicians will need to visit the radar site later this morning to diagnose the problem and repair/restore service. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Beaty CLIMATE...Steinbugl EQUIPMENT...Beaty