FXUS61 KCTP 200246 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1046 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Cold front approaches from the west, but stalls briefly over western PA before moving through Central PA on Wed. * High pressure over eastern Canada will help keep Erin offshore and PA dry as the hurricane passes our latitude. * A refreshing taste of Fall likely to arrive into the last week of August && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SE llvl flow keeping the clouds thicker over the s-central mtns, but holes continue to appear as mixing works the moisture in with the drier air aloft and near sfc. Radar at 19Z shows returns getting into PA from LE, but most of the returns are aloft thus far. While there could be --SHRA for Warren Co before dark, we will leave the PoPs and QPF nil until sunset considering the drier air over the NWrn part of the CWA. SHRA/TSRA will move in from the NW, but likely not get into the Lower Susq by morning. The low clouds should re-establish themselves tonight, and may lead to a patch or two of DZ, but likely not enough to paint in the grids. Cold front gets to the OH/PA border by sunrise. But, we'll be more in a cool airmass vs a true warm sector. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Flow over PA becomes NErly thru the day and Wed night as the sfc low inching across PA melts into oblivion, and the giant circulation around Erin takes over. Forcing is present in the form of two short wave vort maxes but PWATs are not impressive at all - unless it is February. So, the worry for heavy rainfall is low. Still, the possible slow movement of cells Wed could be a slight (MRGL) cause for excessive rainfall, mainly in the central zones. Lingering forcing and boundaries for the overnight keeps SHRA/isold TSRA in the forecast until dry air moves in from the NE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Confidence is high for the long range. Large scale subsidence to the west of departing Hurricane Erin provides a mainly dry Thurs and all dry Fri. Erin passes well to the east of PA with max wind only 12KT with gusts under 20KT in Lancaster Co Thurs. Rising heights into the weekend will promote a warming trend with highs rebounding back into the lower 80s for Friday and through the whole weekend. Longer range model and ensemble data continues to show a more formidable upper trough digging into the Great Lakes and amplifying this weekend over the Eastern U.S. Moisture returning northward from the Gulf along the leading frontal boundary should provide a focus for showers and storms with max POPs Sat-Sun as it moves slowly eastward from the Appalachians toward the Mid Atlantic coast. Taste of Fall on the horizon for at least the first part of next week as cooler/more refreshing air filters into the region from Canada. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mix of low VFR, MVFR and IFR cigs will lower to MVFR/IFR/LIFR overnight into Wednesday morning. Showers are most likely to track across the northern airspace late tonight into Wednesday morning with a few thunderstorms possible across the airspace Wednesday afternoon. Sub- VFR cigs are probable Wednesday night through Thursday morning with slow/gradual improvement through Thursday night. Outlook... Fri-Sat...VFR. AM fog possible. Sun...T-storms likely. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl AVIATION...Steinbugl/Gartner