FXUS61 KCTP 200113 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 913 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... *SPC has introduced a MRGL risk for severe thunderstorms across the Laurel Highlands and SW PA valid Friday afternoon and evening && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A broken line of thunderstorms across central and western PA is likely late Friday afternoon and into Friday evening, following a widespread light to moderate rain earlier in the day. 2) Cold frontal passage Sunday should make widespread rain showers perhaps ending as a brief period of snow across the north, followed by windy and colder temps on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... 1) A broken line of thunderstorms across central and western PA is likely late Friday afternoon and into Friday evening, following a more widespread light rain earlier in the day. A Clipper system embedded within strong mid and upper level flow will cross through the Great Lakes and into New York State on Friday. Isentropic ascent with PW values rising to near 0.75 inch will likely result in an area of stratiform light to moderate rain moving from NW to SE during the afternoon. As a cold front approaches during the evening hours, a broken line of showers (east) and thunderstorms (west) is expected to form on the back edge of the precip area, perhaps with a dry break between the two areas of rainfall. With 850 hPa flow between 30 and 40 kts and a few hundred Joules of MLCAPE, isolated severe wind gusts can not be ruled out particularly across the Laurels and points southwest. Total QPF is progged between 0.25 and 0.50 inch. High temps will end up about 10F milder than the previous day (49-63F across the CWA fm N to S). -------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold frontal passage Sunday should make widespread rain showers perhaps ending as a brief period of snow across the north, followed by windy and colder temps on Monday. 990mb sfc low over ND Sat evening will ride quickly to the east. The sfc low is progged by most models to be somewhere near BUF Sun evening. The warm advection precip looks like it will pass mainly north of PA for Sunday daytime. A little -RA may brush the far nrn tier during the daylight hours. More certainty exists in the passage of the connected cold front on Sunday night. QPF Sun night actually looks very similar to Friday's amounts. Much of the precip will fall along and behind the front. The cold air being forced in from the N and the rainfall will quickly drop temps Sun night. Despite maxes in the upper 50s in the N (they'll be near 70 for the srn half of the CWA) on Sunday, the cooling will probably (50%) turn the rain to SN over the nrn mtns. If it does turn to SN there, it shouldn't over the central and srn two- thirds of the CWA due to the warmer start when the rain arrives. Maybe a little mix could happen on the top of the ridges of the central mtns. Mins will be 25-30F in the N, but just above 40F along the MD border (lower elevs). The precip will be S of the MD border around or just after sunrise Mon. Mon-Tue look dry with temps a little below normal. Moderate pressure rises of 3-4 mb/3 hr will support NW wind gusts in the high 20s to mid 30s (KTS) during the daylight hours Monday. Went above NBM guidance by 10 kts or so in the wind category. Wed should be a few degs warmer than normal and Thu much warmer with lots of places >=60F. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A few showers near UNV at this time, but most areas will have clouds into Friday. MVFR CIGS will be most likely at BFD, less likely elsewhere. Main issue for Friday will be gusty winds in the afternoon into the evening, as strong jet stream results in more showers and gusty winds with a fast moving cold front late in the day. Some chance for a low topped thunderstorm, but left out of the 00Z TAF package for now. Saturday at this points looks like the best day of the week so far. Sunday will feature a strong north to south temperature gradient, as low pressure moves across the area. Most of the showers will be on back side of the front. Potential for more gusty winds Sunday into Monday, as the colder air works into the area. Also potential for more snow late Sunday night into Monday morning across the northwest. Outlook... Friday Night...Restrictions in rain showers. Sat-Sun...Mainly VFR. Sun Night - Mon...Cold front passage, restrictions in rain; some wintry mix possible across the north. Tue...Dry with VFR conditions expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Colbert DISCUSSION...Lambert/Colbert AVIATION...Lambert/Martin