FXUS61 KCTP 060548 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 148 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Convective threat has ended && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Stratiform rain expected across central PA tonight into Wed. 2) Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze potential returning as early as Wed Night in the northern tier, but more likely Thu night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Stratiform rain expected across central PA tonight into Wed. Wave of low pressure rides up the advancing cold front tonight and slows things down. A good feed of moisture will spread rain west to east across the CWA late tonight and Wed AM. The front should clear the eastern counties later in the aftn Wed. Before it does so, some convection may form ahead of it. But, a cap around 10kft will try to suppress storms in the SE. Do not expect the storms to become strong, moving east of the area in the middle of the aftn. Some lingering SHRA are possible in the late aftn/eve. Maxes will be 15F colder than Tue thanks to all the clouds and rain. ------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze potential returning as early as Wed Night in the northern tier, but more likely Thu night. After the cold front pushes E and S of the CWA on Wed, the sky may clear out well enough in the nrn mtns to allow the temps to drop into the M30s. Some cloud cover is still possible, and the wind is not totally calm until later at night/early Thurs AM. Thus, there is the chc for frost there, but it's not a slam dunk. Thurs night/Fri AM looks better for frost. Most guidance puts mins into the 30s over the NW half or more of the CWA Fri AM, with less cloud cover than the night before. Not many pixels of 32F or lower on the MinT grid, but a small (20%) risk is there for someone to have a freeze across the NW. The risk for frost is much more - around 70% for the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands. So, we'll need to consider frost advy as we near that period. At this point, we're not quite confident enough for any frost/freeze products. We do have it mentioned in the HWO, but may need to expand mentions. After two more weak systems Fri - Sun, we get another cold night Mon night/Tues AM. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain will gradually expand into western terminals (all except for MDT/LNS) through 12Z Wednesday with very high (~90%) confidence in sub-VFR conditions by daybreak. Current conditions northwest of the forecast area outline LIFR as a fairly good bet across BFD/JST over the next couple hours with model soundings outlining ample low-level moisture. GLAMP guidance is slightly more hesitant and realistically could see an hour or two between 06-08Z Wednesday with low-levels not being saturated enough with VFR conditions prevailing given the most expansive cloud deck above this being ~4000-5000 ft AGL. Have decided to trend towards LIFR given the potential and higher impact, but chances remain 50-50 on LIFR vs VFR conditions in the very near- term through 08Z. MVFR-to-IFR appear the most likely solution at all other of the aforementioned western terminals throughout the early morning hours. Another near-term concern will be the presence of LLWS across SE PA (MDT/LNS) with gusty winds at the surface. This threat will mainly be centered along the 08-12Z window ahead of precipitation. Have trended precipitation mentions slightly closer to HREF model guidance this cycle, with main changes in shortening duration at MDT/LNS with a second slug of low-level moisture after a brief break. Chances in this second slug are not the highest and have outlined these with PROB30s based on HREF probabilities and can likely hammer these out in theform of a FM/TEMPO group closer to the time with higher confidence. After precipitation heads out west-to-east, slightly more model disagreement with regards to what happens with the low-level cloud deck so have outlined some lower level clouds above VFR thresholds (~3000-4000 ft AGL); however, some model guidance eliminates these completely and trends closer to a solution with more expansive mid-to-high level clouds, if any at all closer to the 06Z Thursday time range, so this portion of the TAF package will likely need refined closer to the time. Outlook... Thu-Fri...-SHRA possible, but trending drier. Sat...Restrictions possible in rain. Sun...Showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with restrictions possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Colbert DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert AVIATION...Beaty