FXUS61 KCTP 060218 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1018 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Convective threat has ended && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Stratiform rain expected across central PA tonight into Wed. 2) Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze potential returning as early as Wed Night in the northern tier, but more likely Thu night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Stratiform rain expected across central PA tonight into Wed. Wave of low pressure rides up the advancing cold front tonight and slows things down. A good feed of moisture will spread rain west to east across the CWA late tonight and Wed AM. The front should clear the eastern counties later in the aftn Wed. Before it does so, some convection may form ahead of it. But, a cap around 10kft will try to suppress storms in the SE. Do not expect the storms to become strong, moving east of the area in the middle of the aftn. Some lingering SHRA are possible in the late aftn/eve. Maxes will be 15F colder than Tue thanks to all the clouds and rain. ------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Chillier to end the week with frost/freeze potential returning as early as Wed Night in the northern tier, but more likely Thu night. After the cold front pushes E and S of the CWA on Wed, the sky may clear out well enough in the nrn mtns to allow the temps to drop into the M30s. Some cloud cover is still possible, and the wind is not totally calm until later at night/early Thurs AM. Thus, there is the chc for frost there, but it's not a slam dunk. Thurs night/Fri AM looks better for frost. Most guidance puts mins into the 30s over the NW half or more of the CWA Fri AM, with less cloud cover than the night before. Not many pixels of 32F or lower on the MinT grid, but a small (20%) risk is there for someone to have a freeze across the NW. The risk for frost is much more - around 70% for the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands. So, we'll need to consider frost advy as we near that period. At this point, we're not quite confident enough for any frost/freeze products. We do have it mentioned in the HWO, but may need to expand mentions. After two more weak systems Fri - Sun, we get another cold night Mon night/Tues AM. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As sfc winds diminish this evening, LLWS will become a concern again at MDT and LNS with winds between 1500 and 2000 feet remaining in the 40 to 45 knot range for much of the night. Expect ceilings to lower from northwest to southeast through the night and into Wednesday morning as rain expands southeastward along a cold front. IFR ceilings will first develop at BFD before expanding to JST and AOO by mid- morning. Both the LAMP and the NBM would indicate that IFR ceilings will develop across the rest of Central PA as well, but model RH profiles from both the RAP and HRRR suggest that MVFR ceilings are more likely. This is supported by the HREF as well, which only shows a 20 to 50 percent chance IFR ceilings impacting any other TAF sites. Visibility will likely drop to MVFR as rain moves in, with periods of IFR visibility possible. Steady rain will begin to taper off from west to east during the morning and afternoon hours, though showers could linger into the early evening in the southeast. Much of the day will bring MVFR or IFR ceilings. The cold frontal passage will take place as early as 12z at BFD, and then the front will very slowly slide southeastward, finally making it to LNS around/after 00z Thu. Outlook... Thu-Fri...-SHRA possible, but trending drier. Sat...Restrictions possible in rain. Sun...Showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with restrictions possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Colbert DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert AVIATION...Colbert/Bauco