FXUS61 KCTP 041715 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 115 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Lowered dewpoints by a few Deg F below NBM with deep vertical mixing up to around 7 kft AGL and significant drying aloft this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures trend much warmer today and Tuesday, ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures trend much warmer today and Tuesday, ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday. Sfc high pressure has drifted east of the Carolina Coast and the moderately tight pressure gradient across the Mid Atlantic Region and Lower Great Lakes will support a gusty southwesterly breeze. Even with the advection of slightly higher dewpoints into the Commonwealth the significant rise in temps will equate to similar or just slightly higher min RHs today relative to Sunday. High temperatures jump into the 60s and 70s this afternoon with the crest of this current warmup occurring Tuesday as a moderately gusty southwesterly flow is sustained out ahead of the next, slow- moving cold front, and temps start out the day Tuesday some 10-15 deg F higher than this morning thanks to the breeze and more cloud cover. In fact, we could see some highly infrequent, nocturnal convection across the NW Mtns and perhaps even as far south as RT 211 in the Laurel Highlands as the nose of a strengthening Westerly LLJ advects some modest MU CAPE of over 500 J/KG across approximately the SW half of PA tonight/early Tuesday. A few locations across south-central PA may even push the 80 degree mark Tuesday afternoon. Scattered-numerous showers will impact the region (mainly the NW 1/2 of PA) on Tuesday, especially across northwest PA. The higher chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a slow-moving cold front. Temperatures once again turn cooler behind this front for late in the upcoming week, with potential frost/freeze concerns developing. Medium range guidance indicates showers mixing with or falling as wet snow across the Northern Mountains and Laurel Highlands late Wed night through Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the day with scattered clouds between 5000 and 7000 feet. Southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots will continue into the early evening, before tapering off after sunset. A 40 to 50 knot low-level jet moving in tonight will bring LLWS concerns to much of Central PA. For now, we have kept wind shear out of the TAFs at IPT, MDT, and LNS, with the strongest part of the jet expected to remain west of those sites. The LLJ will also provide enough lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over western PA after 00Z. All airfields except MDT and LNS have at least a 30 percent chance of seeing rain from these showers and storms tonight. Widespread restrictions appear unlikely, though brief visibility drops will be possible in any thunderstorms. Showers decrease in coverage after sunrise on Tuesday, giving way to mainly dry conditions for the rest of the morning. MVFR ceilings may develop at BFD, though the rest of Central PA should remain VFR. Expect southwesterly wind gusts increase to 20 to 25 knots by 15Z. Outlook... Tue PM...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE; restrictions possible. Wed-Thu...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely. Fri-Sat...Scattered SHRA remains possible, restrictions possible. && .CLIMATE... Multiple low temperature records were set or tied across central Pennsylvania for May 3rd: Altoona observed a low temperature of 31 degrees, breaking the previous record of 32 degrees set in 1957. Johnstown observed a low temperature of 29 degrees, which ties the previous record of 29 degrees set in 1941. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert KEY MESSAGES...Lambert DISCUSSION...Lambert AVIATION...Bauco CLIMATE...Beaty/Lambrech