FXUS61 KCTP 041657

AFDCTP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service State College PA

1257 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Added locally +RA in WPC Marginal EROs Wednesday-Friday 



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Trending humid with heavy downpours and localized flash 

flooding possible Wednesday into the weekend 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Trending humid with heavy downpours and 

localized flash flooding possible Wednesday into the weekend



After a very nice/refreshing start to the week, deep moisture 

surge of high pwats within a return SW flow will spell an 

increased risk of heavy drenching downpours and localized flash 

flooding Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. WPC continues to 

show broad marginal risks of excessive rain (ERO) given the 

uncertainty in the location of heavy rainfall. Conditions will 

be warm and quite sticky/humid with dewpoints in the 65-75F 

range; muggy nights 5-10+ degrees above the historical average.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR through most of tonight. Surge of low level moisture will

likely bring MVFR ceilings into the southern half of the central

PA airspace Wednesday morning. Best odds for +RA and brief IFR 

visibility appears to be in the KMDT/KLNS vicinity Wednesday PM.



Outlook... 



Thu-Sun...Pockets of fog in the morning. Scattered showers/isolated

t-storms with heavy downpours and localized restrictions. 



&&



.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl

KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl

DISCUSSION...Steinbugl

AVIATION...Steinbugl