FXUS61 KCTP 040611

AFDCTP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service State College PA

211 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Lowered dewpoints and raised wind gusts slightly for the rest

  of the afternoon.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Temperatures trend warmer today through the first few days 

of the upcoming week, ahead of a system that will bring 

widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures start to trend warmer today through

the first few days of the upcoming week, ahead of a system that

will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday 

and Thursday.



After the nip in the air today with highs still 5-10 deg F below

normal, expect to see high temperatures jump into the 60s and 

70s on Monday and Tuesday as a moderately gusty southwesterly 

flow develops out ahead of the next, slow-moving cold front.



A few locations across south-central PA may even push the 80

degree mark Tuesday afternoon. Scattered-numerous showers will 

impact the region (mainly the NW 1/2 of PA) on Tuesday, 

especially across northwest PA. The higher chance for showers 

and thunderstorms looks to be on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of

a slow-moving cold front. 



Temperatures once again turn cooler behind this front for late

in the upcoming week, with potential frost/freeze concerns 

developing.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

06z update... Confidence remains quite high (90+%) in 

VFR/unrestricted conditions through 00z Tuesday. 



Transient low level wind shear possible in northern TAF sites as

lower-level jet builds in. BFD may see brief intervals of 35kts

LLWS in the 09Z-11Z timeframe, UNV and IPT may see 30kts.

Confidence is not high enough to include in TAFs as magnitude is

not expected to cross 35kts for significant periods of time.



Low-level winds emanate from the S and SW and become gusty (up 

to 20-25 kt) by midday Monday as high pressure moves offshore

and convective mixing brings down stronger winds.



Outlook...



Tue...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE; 

restrictions possible.



Wed-Thu...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.



Fri...Scattered SHRA remains possible, restrictions possible



&&



.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco

KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Bauco

DISCUSSION...Lambert/Bauco

AVIATION...Lambrech/Jurewicz