FXUS61 KCLE 241949

AFDCLE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cleveland OH

349 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A trough will shift east of the region tonight into Saturday as

high pressure builds in from the west. The high will influence the

area through the weekend before drifting northeastward early next

week. Low pressure may impact the region mid to late next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Scattered light lake effect showers will persist across portions

of NE OH/NW PA through early Saturday morning before largely 

diminishing throughout the day Saturday. There may be an uptick 

in showers along the lakeshore Saturday night as an area of 

convergence develops as the lake effect showers begin to lift 

north with the arrival of high pressure. Outside of showers, 

northwest flow will produce broken lake effect clouds across the

remainder of the snowbelt region through the daytime hours 

Saturday.



Overnight lows will depend on the placement of lake effect

clouds and there will most likely be a relatively sharp gradient

between freezing/sub-freezing and above freezing temperatures. 

The highest likelihood of sub-freezing temperatures will be from

Stark County northeast to Ottawa/Lucas counties and locations 

south/west. A Freeze Warning is in effect for this area, 

although it should be noted that locations close to the lakeshore

will likely be above freezing. Confidence is lower north and 

west of these areas, especially near the edge of the cloud deck 

in Mahoning/Portage/Summit and possibly Trumbull counties. Will 

need to keep an eye on cloud cover/temperature trends on the 

fringe of the Freeze Warning; may need to issue a Frost Advisory

or expand the Freeze Warning at some point this evening.



Highs in the 50s are expected on Saturday with overnight lows

falling into the 30s Saturday night. Additional frost and

perhaps isolated spots with freeze are possible and frost/freeze

headlines are possible (assuming the growing season doesn't end

tonight).



&&



.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure will continue to build over the region Sunday and

generally expect dry weather through Monday. A few showers may

attempt to sneak into the area as the high drifts east Monday

night, but generally thinking that most if not all of the area

will remain dry. Temperatures will be in the 50s with the

warmest temps in the upper 50s expected across interior NW OH.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Low pressure may develop somewhere over the Ohio Valley or

Tennessee Valley Tuesday before moving east and phasing into a

coastal low off the East Coast mid to late week. Precipitation

chances across the area are still somewhat uncertain, although

the majority of deterministic guidance keeps most of the area

dry. However, if the low takes a track that resembles the latest

ECMWF, there will likely be scattered showers across the area

during the long term period. Opted for broad chance PoPs Tuesday

through Friday and will continue to adjust the forecast as

confidence in the timing/placement of precip increases. High

temperatures will generally be in the 50s.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...

Lake effect rain clouds and isolated showers continue for

CLE/CAK and terminals east, mainly VFR but some MVFR not out of

the question. Further west, expect clearing overnight and winds

going calm as high pressure moves in from the west. Ceilings

mainly FL035-050 for the duration of the TAF where cloud cover

persists. 



Outlook...Isolated to scattered lake-effect rain showers with 

periodic non-VFR should impact NW PA and NE OH through early

Sunday morning and may then impact portions of NE and NW OH

later Sunday morning through afternoon. Scattered rain showers 

with non-VFR are possible this Monday through Tuesday.&&



.MARINE...

Northwest winds continue to gradually ease through tonight, falling 

below 10kts by 06Z, with wave heights decreasing accordingly. As 

high pressure builds over Quebec, east northeast winds increase to 

10-20kts Sunday night, and up to 20-30kts Monday with wave heights 

peaking at 4-7ft in the open water zones, and back to 10-20kts for 

midweek.



&&



.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OH...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for 

     OHZ003-006>010-017>020-027>032-036>038-047.

PA...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...15

NEAR TERM...15

SHORT TERM...15

LONG TERM...15

AVIATION...26

MARINE...26