FXUS61 KCLE 190748 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 348 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds east over Ontario this evening as low pressure move into the region from the west. A warm front will lift north Tuesday into Wednesday with the cold front moving through on Wednesday. The low will exit to the east late Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure creating dry and cool conditions will continue through this evening into Tuesday. A low pressure system will push into the Great Lakes region early on Tuesday with the accompanying warm front moving north across the area. Precipitation chances will increase Tuesday afternoon as the low pressure system approaches. There will be a low potential for strong thunderstorms with strong winds being the main threat, though this will be isolated given the weak shear lack of forcing. Timing will be key as well as it will be focused more during the afternoon/early evening on Tuesday for areas west of I-77 ahead of the cold front. Confidence is low in severe potential for that time period and the potential will dissipate as the front progress east after sunset. Temperatures overnight tonight will be cool with lows in the low 60s to upper 50s. Some low areas out east may dip down into the low 50s as well. High temperatures tomorrow will rebound slightly from today with passing warm front and be in the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will exit the region to the east by mid Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west. A dry forecast is expected as the high moves across the Great Lakes region Wednesday evening and throughout the day on Thursday. Temperatures will be cooler behind the cold front with highs in the low 80s as north to northeasterly flow takes over. Overnight lows will be in the mid to low 60s down to the upper 50s in the far eastern portions of the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will build eastward throughout the day on Friday as a surface low develops in south-central Canada. The low and accompanying cold front will move eastward across the region on Saturday into Sunday bringing potential for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will begin to build into the region on Sunday into early next with dry weather and cooler temperatures expected. Through the weekend highs are expected to be in the mid 80s for Friday and Saturday and drop down into the upper 70s behind the front on Sunday. Overnight lows will follow a similar pattern being the mid to low 60s then dropping into the 50s behind the cold front. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... A weak low pressure system moves east across the southern Great Lakes today and tonight, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. Brief, isolated periods MVFR visibilities and ceilings are possible today with and heavier showers/thunderstorms. SHRA and VCSH are mentioned in TAFs but held off on TSRA/VCTS due to very low confidence in location/timing of storms. With the departure of the low pressure and associated cold front tonight, low ceilings down to IFR are expected late tonight. Winds will tend to be out of the south and southwest today, becoming northwest tonight. Winds should generally be less than 10 knots. Outlook...Non-VFR expected to continue late Tuesday night and through Thursday with isolated rain showers and low ceilings. Additional non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, mainly east of I-77. && .MARINE... Weak low pressure moves eastward across Lake Erie today and tonight before departing to the east on Wednesday. Southerly winds of around10 knots are expected today, becoming northwest tonight and strengthening to around 15 knots as the the lows slides eastward across the lake. Winds become east-northeast on Wednesday, strengthening to around 20 knots Wednesday evening and lasting through at least Thursday afternoon. It is a near guarantee that a small craft advisory and beach hazard statement will be needed for a good chunk of this time frame for much of Lake Erie, mainly east of the islands. Conditions improve Thursday night and Friday as high pressure builds in. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...04 NEAR TERM...04 SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Saunders