FXUS61 KCLE 061145 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 745 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is slowly increasing for patchy to areas of Frost west of the I-71 corridor tonight. Otherwise, no significant changes to the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread rain will exit east of the area this morning. Chilly nights are expected tonight and Thursday night with some Frost possible. 2) Rain chances will return towards the end of the week and into the weekend followed by another chilly airmass early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Post-frontal widespread rain will gradually exit east of the area later this morning, with an additional 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain expected, mainly east of the I-71 corridor. Starting to see some minor river rises, but nothing too significant thus far. A cooler air mass will arrive into the region later today, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling between 0 to -2C, which will drop overnight lows into the mid to upper 30s. At this time, the highest confidence for Frost to develop tonight will generally be west of the I-71 corridor where cloud cover should diminish more quickly vs further east. Another chance for Frost conditions is possible Thursday night, though a weak low pressure system moving through the area could introduce cloud and/or rain chances and limit the overall potential. KEY MESSAGE 2... More widespread rain chances will return Friday night into Saturday as a low pressure system moves east through the Lower great Lakes region. There exists some uncertainty on the axis of heavier rainfall and the overall evolution of the system, though the areas where rain occurs can generally expect total amounts between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. A stronger low pressure system and associated cold front will move east through the region on Sunday, bringing widespread rain and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms across the area. Total rainfall amounts with this system, have the potential to be slightly higher than the Friday system given the more convective elements involved. Another cool air mass will arrive behind the cold front early next week, with low temperatures falling into the 40s or upper 30s, especially Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The active pattern is favored to continue towards mid-week as a third low pressure system appears to impact the Lower Great Lakes region on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... The last of the rain will end at KYNG and KERI over the next 1 to 2 hours, with IFR/LIFR cigs there improving to MVFR. Otherwise, all terminals will be prevailing VFR by mid morning as drier air works into the region. VFR is then expected through tonight as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. NW winds will average 5-10 knots later this morning into this afternoon, backing to more WNW by this evening and tonight. Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Friday through Sunday. && .MARINE... Mainly quiet conditions will continue on Lake Erie through the weekend as pressure gradients will be overall weak, supporting light winds most of the time. Light and variable winds early this morning will become NW to WNW at 5-15 knots this afternoon through tonight before backing to W at 5-15 knots Thursday. SW winds will average 10-15 knots Thursday night and Friday, with SW winds expected to dominate through Saturday with speeds ranging from 5 to 15 knots. Winds should finally turn N behind a cold front Sunday and decrease to 5-10 knots. No marine headlines are expected through the next 5 days. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kahn AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Garuckas