FXUS61 KCLE 060819 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 419 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is slowly increasing for patchy to areas of Frost west of the I-71 corridor tonight. Otherwise, no significant changes to the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread rain will exit east of the area this morning. Chilly nights are expected tonight and Thursday night with some Frost possible. 2) Rain chances will return towards the end of the week and into the weekend followed by another chilly airmass early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Post-frontal widespread rain will gradually exit east of the area later this morning, with an additional 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain expected, mainly east of the I-71 corridor. Starting to see some minor river rises, but nothing too significant thus far. A cooler air mass will arrive into the region later today, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling between 0 to -2C, which will drop overnight lows into the mid to upper 30s. At this time, the highest confidence for Frost to develop tonight will generally be west of the I-71 corridor where cloud cover should diminish more quickly vs further east. Another chance for Frost conditions is possible Thursday night, though a weak low pressure system moving through the area could introduce cloud and/or rain chances and limit the overall potential. KEY MESSAGE 2... More widespread rain chances will return Friday night into Saturday as a low pressure system moves east through the Lower great Lakes region. There exists some uncertainty on the axis of heavier rainfall and the overall evolution of the system, though the areas where rain occurs can generally expect total amounts between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. A stronger low pressure system and associated cold front will move east through the region on Sunday, bringing widespread rain and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms across the area. Total rainfall amounts with this system, have the potential to be slightly higher than the Friday system given the more convective elements involved. Another cool air mass will arrive behind the cold front early next week, with low temperatures falling into the 40s or upper 30s, especially Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The active pattern is favored to continue towards mid-week as a third low pressure system appears to impact the Lower Great Lakes region on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... The widespread rain will gradually exit from west to east this morning and should be out of KYNG and KERI by 15Z. Cigs and vis remain challenging within the rain since there have been large fluctuations between LIFR and VFR. Expect MVFR to be most prevalent early this morning, with periods of IFR/LIFR and VFR sprinkled in. Tried to use TEMPO groups to reflect this uncertainty, but overall poor flight conditions will be the rule through at least sunrise. By mid morning, mainly VFR should develop from west to east as drier air works into the region. KTOL and KFDY will see VFR earlier (by 10 to 11Z), but the rest of the terminals will scatter out to VFR by 14 to 16Z, with VFR then prevailing through the end of the TAF period. Light and variable winds early this morning will trend more steadily NW by sunrise, with NW winds of 5-10 knots by this afternoon, backing to more WNW by this evening. Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Friday through Sunday. && .MARINE... Mainly quiet conditions will continue on Lake Erie through the weekend as pressure gradients will be overall weak, supporting light winds most of the time. Light and variable winds early this morning will become NW to WNW at 5-15 knots this afternoon through tonight beforebacking to W at 5-15 knots Thursday. SW winds will average 10-15 knots Thursday night and Friday, with SW winds expected to dominate through Saturday with speeds ranging from 5 to 15 knots. Winds should finally turn N behind a cold front Sunday and decrease to 5-10 knots. No marine headlines are expected through the next 5 days. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kahn AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Garuckas