FXUS61 KCLE 050812 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 412 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The axis of heaviest rainfall through tonight has shifted slightly southeast and confidence is increasing for some nuisance and/or minor river flooding. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will arrive across the region today and tonight. Confidence is increasing for some nuisance and/or minor river flooding. 2) A chilly air mass will return across the region mid to late week with another round of Frost conditions possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An area of weak low pressure will develop along a slow- moving cold front which is currently located in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan early this morning. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front this afternoon into tonight. Thunderstorm chances and the heavy rain threat will be highest ahead of the front, generally east of the I-71 corridor. The latest guidance indicates this area could receive up to 1.5 inches of rain into early Wednesday morning, with some isolated amounts up to 2 inches possible. Area soundings support a modest heavy rain potential with saturated and skinny-CAPE profiles, in addition to southwest cloud layer flow paralleling the front. Given the already saturated ground, characterized by 3-hour FFGs just under 2 inches across much of the area, confidence is increasing for at least some instances of nuisance flooding and/or minor river rises. More significant water issues cannot be ruled out if rainfall totals trend any higher and will be something to monitor. KEY MESSAGE 3... Behind the cold front on Wednesday, temperatures will mainly trend below normal through the end of the week and into the weekend with 850 mb temperatures falling between 0 and -2C Wednesday into Friday morning. This will bring some Frost potential across the region both Wednesday and Thursday nights as low temperatures drop into the 30s. Rain chances will return Friday night into Saturday, and again on Sunday as a pair of low pressure systems move through the region. Another round of chilly temperatures appear likely by early next week behind these systems. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Rain will increase in coverage over the next few hours, especially across western and central terminals. This may cause some brief MVFR, but generally expect VFR with mainly light rain. Removed thunder early this morning given little to no instability in the latest analysis. After a lull in the rain showers in the roughly 12-15Z timeframe, expect another round of rain to spread in from west to east. This will be a much more widespread and longer lasting period of rain, setting up a wet afternoon and evening with cigs and vis gradually falling to MVFR and eventually IFR. Some thunderstorms could develop on the front edge of this rain shield at KMFD, KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI, so kept TEMPO groups. S to SW winds will gust to 20-25 knots at times this morning before gradually turning NW late this morning through the afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Wind speeds will decrease through the afternoon, becoming NE around 3 to 5 knots by early tonight. Outlook...Periodic rain showers with non-VFR are expected through Saturday. Occasional thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots are expected through early Tuesday morning. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions may periodically occur this evening and tonight, however confidence is too low to warrant a headline at this point. Gusty winds are possible in any thunderstorms that move over the lake this evening into tonight. Winds will shift to the northwest and diminish below 10 knots Tuesday afternoon with variable winds 10 knots or less expected Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. West/northwest winds under 15 knots will develop Wednesday through Thursday with southwest winds developing Friday into early weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kahn AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Garuckas