FXUS61 KCAR 241901 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 301 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Shortwave energy will move cross the region tonight and exit Saturday. High pressure approaches from the west this weekend through Monday. Low pressure then approaches from the south Tuesday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A large upper level trof will continue to slowly progress E through tonight. The 500mb models show a vort max moving across Quebec and towards the state. This vort max will produce enough shortwave energy to create unsettled weather for tonight and Saturday. After midnight, Downeast and the Bangor region will see some light rain showers that will slowly move east. Temps in the low 30s in the north and upper 30s in the south. By Saturday, NW flow will push any remaining clouds out of the south while some low level clouds move into the north. Early sunshine will push temps into the low 50s for the day. By Saturday night, the vort max will exit to the east, while another vort max moves in. Thus isolated showers will move across the south. Cloudy skies should keep temps in the low 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will gradually be making its way into the area from the west late this weekend into early next week though an upper level trough will remain over the New England region and persist a generally unsettled pattern, with a slight chance for rain with this source of instability. The persistent low level moisture will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy, and there will be the chance for patchy fog Sunday night due to continued elevated surface moisture. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will continue to approach from the west, however it will not have a chance to fully establish prior to the threat of a low pressure system approaching from the south and west through the middle of the next week. Fair weather is likely through the first half of the week because of the weak influence of the high pressure to the north, though northeast winds will aid in maintaining cloud cover. Temperatures should be around average with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s each day and lows in the 30s each night. Various solutions remain across guidance for how an approaching low pressure system will evolve through the end of the week. A deep upper level trough will help support the development of a baroclinic system across the SE CONUS prior to this system moving up along the Atlantic coastline. Additionally, there could be additional tropical moisture that may get trapped within this wave. All that said, the interaction between multiple low pressure systems and timing uncertainties with the upper level trough leave for timing discrepancies for when a low pressure system impacts our area, if it ever does through the end of the week. Assuming the baroclinic low does move into our region, the deep upper level trough with tropical connections could be enough for a significant rain event through the end of this week. The evolution of this system will continue to be closely monitored. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions for all terminals tonight, Saturday, and Saturday night. Possible MVFR cigs and vsby in patchy fog and rain showers tonight and Saturday night. Light NNW winds for this period. SHORT TERM: Sunday: VFR falling towards MVFR cigs through the day. NW winds around 5 kts. Sunday night: MVFR falling to IFR cigs from north to south. Potential for IFR/LIFR vis in any patchy fog development. N winds around 5 kts. Monday - Wednesday: MVFR, lifting towards low end VFR each afternoon. IFR cigs possible in any rain showers. NE winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts each afternoon.&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions tonight, Saturday, and Saturday night. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain generally below small craft advisory criteria through Monday. Winds will begin to increase on Tuesday with NE gusts approaching 30 kts, and seas beginning to build towards 5 to 6 ft heading into the middle of next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...ARL Short Term...AES Long Term...AES Aviation...ARL/AES Marine...ARL/AES