FXUS61 KCAR 041813 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 213 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... -Friday frontal system trending slower, moving precipitation to Friday evening into Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heat and humidity builds through the end of the week. 2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week. Some severe storms are possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity builds through the end of the week. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Southwest winds bring the heat to the region starting Wednesday with the warmest day over the north being tomorrow. Temps will climb to around 90 over inland locations with locations along the coast near 80. Dewpoints will climb into the 60s though may be able to mix out into the 50s during the afternoon. This should help keep apparent temps near air temperatures tomorrow. Temperatures stay elevated through Saturday. Seabreeze develops Wednesday evening, to help reduce temperatures along the Downeast coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week. Some severe storms are possible. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system approaches from the northwest, moving into New Brunswick. Associated cold front is trending slower, as it swings through on Friday evening, through Maine by Saturday. Another low pressure system to the southwest comes in as well, providing another round of rain this weekend. There is some instability ahead of the cold front. NAM has begun to pick up on the system, with it currently showing around 1,500 – 2,000 J/kg of CAPE, good low level lapse rates (roughly 8C/km), and plenty of precipitation. Soundings are moist, with classic long and skinny CAPE throughout most of northern and eastern Maine. PWAT values around 1.8” possible, which is around the 90th percentile, approaching the 1.9” daytime maximum value on Friday, and 1.7" record on Saturday. Keeping the threat of thunder inland, as a seabreeze off of the stable Gulf of Maine waters should stabilize the coast and keep daytime high temperatures cooler than inland areas. Storm motions, based on Corfidi vectors, seems to be moving fast enough to keep flash flood threat at bay, but will need to see how this evolves as the regional models and CAMs pick up on the system and preexisting environment. Global models are keep rainfall through the state and continue to bring instability in along the Central Highlands and Downeast region on Saturday. North has less instability. Chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon as front makes its way through. Convective showers could bring periods of heavier rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00z...VFR. WNW winds gusting 20-30kts will diminish after 23z. Tonight...VFR. W winds 5-10kts. LLWS Aroostook terminals at FL020 from 270 at 35kts. Wednesday...VFR. SW winds 5-10kts. Wednesday night-Thursday night...VFR. Cannot rule out MVFR/IFR river valley fog overnight. Light SSW winds. Friday-Saturday...MVFR/IFR Friday and Saturday in scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Periods of heavier rain with thunderstorms is possible. Light winds overnight, becoming W/SW winds 5 - 10 kts. Saturday night-Sunday...MVFR/IFR with showers overnight, and scattered thunderstorms during the day. Light winds overnight, becoming W winds at 5-10 kts during the day. && .MARINE... Seas will be gradually diminishing this evening below 5ft. SCA in effect out to 25 NM until 00z but may be able to cancel early. Seas drop below 4ft later this evening over all waters through Wednesday night. SW winds remain below 20kts through the period under high pressure and stable flow. Below SCA conditions Thursday into the weekend, with 2-4ft seas over all waters. Potential for some overnight fog Thursday night. Chance for some thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Winds from the S/SW on Thursday into the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Wind Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ001-002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050- 051. && $$ DISCUSSION...ASB/21 AVIATION...ASB/21