FXUS61 KBUF 190530 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 130 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Broad high pressure will remain across the Northeast through Tuesday. The potential for at least some showers and thunderstorms will increase mid week, as a weak surface wave passes through the region. Dry weather will return late in the week as high pressure builds into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... High pressure will maintain fair weather through tonight, although there will be some increase in higher level clouds. Overnight lows dropping into the 50s, with some 40s for the North Country and interior portions of the Southern Tier. High pressure shifting into eastern Canada will continue to maintain dry weather through Tuesday, although clouds will thicken through the day, with a few showers possibly moving into the Niagara Frontier late in the day as a mid level trough approaches the region. The flow coming around to a more southerly direction will bring an uptick in temperatures with most highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Incoming mid level trough and surface wave will increase rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. Improving moisture axis along with an inverted surface trough setting up across the area will lead to at least some scattered showers during this time frame. Thunderstorm chances look muted, but can not rule out some isolated thunderstorms, mainly during peak heating Wednesday afternoon. Overall, rainfall amounts look on the lighter side, basin averages generally a quarter inch or less. A trough axis near the region will maintain low chances of showers Wednesday night. Mid level ridge building across the eastern Great Lakes will bring drier weather Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid level ridge will remain in place across the eastern Great Lakes through Friday night, maintaining fair weather. This ridge will break down over the weekend as a large Canadian low pressure system sends a cold front through the region, bringing the risk for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Confidence in overall timing is low, but the greatest coverage looks to be Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will be the warmest early in the period with widespread daytime readings in the 80s, with a notable cool down behind the front, with highs by Monday 65 to 75. 850 mb temperatures may get cool enough to support some west or northwest flow lake response. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IR satellite shows mostly clear skies across western NY with cirrus along the southern shore of Lake Ontario to the Eastern Lake Ontario region late tonight. VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday as surface high pressure remains across the Northeast. A shortwave trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday night. Deep moisture will move into the region with a surface low over far southern Ontario overnight. Showers, moderate to heavy at times will move across the region, while flight conditions become MVFR or below. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible. IFR conditions are possible across western NY by Wednesday morning. Outlook... Wednesday...Localized cig/vsby restrictions possible especially early in the day, otherwise mainly VFR with decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday...VFR. Saturday...Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers. && .MARINE... Winds will then veer to an offshore southeasterly component later tonight into Tuesday as high pressure passes across central Quebec, although winds will become more easterly on Lake Ontario Tuesday afternoon. This will keep higher waves mainly directed toward Canadian waters during this time frame. A weak low passes through the region during the mid week period with a general weak gradient, resulting in lake breeze circulations. Conditions on the Lower Great Lakes could become choppy again by Thursday as a northeast flow redevelops, but confidence on the strength of the flow is low. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSK/TMA NEAR TERM...JM/TMA SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...TMA AVIATION...HSK MARINE...JM/TMA/HSK