FXUS61 KBUF 190113 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 913 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Broad high pressure will remain across the Northeast through Tuesday. The potential for at least some showers and thunderstorms will increase mid week, as a weak surface wave passes through the region. Dry weather will return late in the week as high pressure builds into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will maintain fair weather through tonight, although there will be some increase in higher level clouds. Overnight lows dropping into the 50s, with some 40s for the North Country and interior portions of the Southern Tier. High pressure shifting into eastern Canada will continue to maintain dry weather through Tuesday, although clouds will thicken through the day, with a few showers possibly moving into the Niagara Frontier late in the day as a mid level trough approaches the region. The flow coming around to a more southerly direction will bring an uptick in temperatures with most highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Incoming mid level trough and surface wave will increase rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. Improving moisture axis along with an inverted surface trough setting up across the area will lead to at least some scattered showers during this time frame. Thunderstorm chances look muted, but can not rule out some isolated thunderstorms, mainly during peak heating Wednesday afternoon. Overall, rainfall amounts look on the lighter side, basin averages generally a quarter inch or less. A trough axis near the region will maintain low chances of showers Wednesday night. Mid level ridge building across the eastern Great Lakes will bring drier weather Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid level ridge will remain in place across the eastern Great Lakes through Friday night, maintaining fair weather. This ridge will break down over the weekend as a large Canadian low pressure system sends a cold front through the region, bringing the risk for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Confidence in overall timing is low, but the greatest coverage looks to be Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will be the warmest early in the period with widespread daytime readings in the 80s, with a notable cool down behind the front, with highs by Monday 65 to 75. 850 mb temperatures may get cool enough to support some west or northwest flow lake response. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR will continue through the TAF period. Some passing cirrus will continue to spill in from the upper Great Lakes tonight. Winds will remain 5 to 10 knots. High clouds are expected to continue to increase tonight. Winds will lighten and veer to southeast late tonight into Tuesday. Otherwise, cloud decks will thicken and lower from later Tuesday morning on as deeper moisture increases across the region ahead of an area of low pressure approaching from the west. A few scattered showers will be possible across the far western NY terminals by later Tuesday afternoon. Outlook... Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR. Isolated to scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Wednesday...Localized cig/vsby restrictions possible especially early in the day, otherwise mainly VFR with decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday...VFR. Saturday...Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers. && .MARINE... Elevated northeasterlies will continue through the first half of tonight on both lakes, keeping choppy conditions in place, especially on Lake Erie from Dunkirk to Ripley. Winds will then veer to an offshore southeasterly component later tonight intoTuesday as high pressure passes across central Quebec, although winds will become more easterly on Lake Ontario Tuesday afternoon. This will keep higher waves mainly directed toward Canadian waters during this time frame. A weak low passes through the region during the mid week period with a general weak gradient, resulting in lake breeze circulations. Conditions on the Lower Great Lakes could become choppy again by Thursday as a northeast flow redevelops, but confidence on the strength of the flow is low. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...JM/TMA SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...TMA AVIATION...JM/TMA MARINE...JM/TMA