FXUS61 KBUF 190002 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 802 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few systems will bring periodic chances for some rain/snow later this week and weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A few systems will bring periodic chances for some rain/snow later this week and weekend. A strong ridge of high pressure will persist across the southwest CONUS into the weekend before the ridge flattens out by early next week. A mid-level trough will remain across the Northeast with embedded fast moving shortwaves moving across the forecast area and bringing chances for rain and snow showers. The first shortwave will approach the region tonight. This system will encounter a fair amount of lower level dry air, but still could support some light snow showers/flurries starting this evening across western New York as warm advection develops along its eastern flank. No accumulation is expected through tonight. A more general low chance of light rain or snow showers is expected across the area Thursday as the shortwave moves through. The next embedded wave will to move across the region Friday and Friday night. Stronger forcing and deeper moisture will support better chances for measurable precipitation with thermal profiles suggesting rain showers across western New York and rain and snow showers east of Lake Ontario. As the ridge flattens out across the southern CONUS this weekend, another deeper trough is expected to move into the Great Lakes region with the potential for cold airmass into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ceilings will gradually lower tonight to low-end VFR/MVFR as a warm front spreads lowering clouds across our region. Some spotty light snow showers and/or flurries will become possible across far western New York, however these are not currently expected to produce any restrictions to visibility. Outlook... Thursday and Friday...VFR/MVFR with a few scattered rain or wet snow showers. Friday night and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers. Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers. Monday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Winds will remain mostly from a southerly direction tonight and increase a bit, possibly touching 20 knots across the eastern portion of Lake Ontario. Winds should back off Thursday, as a warm frontal boundary lifts through with winds turning more westerly and lowering to generally 10 knots or less. Generally light winds should remain through Saturday before a cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes, with northerly component winds increasing behind it, with small craft headlines likely being required on Lake Ontario by late Sunday into Monday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK/JJR/TMA AVIATION...TMA MARINE...TMA