FXUS61 KBGM 250650 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 250 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Lake effect rain showers will continue at times today over central NY, with a few wet snowflakes possible across higher elevations tonight. High pressure builds in on Sunday, bringing a stretch of drier and calmer weather into early next week. Another system looks to approach the region by midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Cold upper level trough remains over the northeast keeping northwest flow over our region. This will allow spotty to scattered lake effect rain showers to continue today over central NY. Temperatures will remain cool with 850 mb temperatures around -4 degrees C. Highs are only expected to climb into the upper 40s to low 50s. Similar pattern continues Saturday night allowing lake effect rain showers to linger. As temperatures fall overnight into the upper 20s to mid 30s, a few snow wet snow flakes may mix in at times. Overall, skies look to remain partly/mostly cloudy with the potential for more patchy fog or freezing fog. A weak surface high will begin building into the region heading into Sunday. Northwest flow gradually shifts north as the upper low slowly slides east cutting off moisture supply from the lakes. As a result drier conditions return with partly sunny skies and highs again in the mid 40s to lower 50s. It is looking very cold Sunday night as skies clear and winds become light and variable. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure remains in control through this period, with light east to northeast winds. This pattern keeps mostly sunny skies and cool temperatures around on Monday. Afternoon temperatures continue to range slightly below average with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 20s to low 30s. Dry northeasterly flow continues into Tuesday along with cool conditions. Surface high remains in place but begins to gradually lift as we head into Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An unsettled and somewhat unpredictable weather setup is expected to develop around mid to late week. Several systems will be at play, one area of low pressure lingering over the northeast, another disturbance moving through the southern states, and a Tropical Cyclone over the Atlantic. These features have the potential to produce a coastal low that brings unsettled and showery weather to the region. There is still a lot of uncertainty in how these systems will interact, therefore relied on NBM for this forecast period. Showers are expected to begin Wednesday night and last though Friday. Temperatures should stay on the chilly side, with daytime highs mostly in the 40s to low 50s and nighttime lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Lake effect clouds will continue to stream across the region through the TAF period. Currently we are seeing a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions across the area. RME is the outlier, with an LIFR deck that just popped up over the terminal. With high clouds covering most of the area, it is impossible to see how the low clouds are developing so went with at TEMPO for these conditions over the next 4 hours as this was not picked up in guidance. ITH will see some lake effect rain showers over the next several hours, which should allow MVFR ceilings to develop as the showers move overhead. ELM and BGM will also see tempo MVFR ceilings tonight. All terminals will be VFR by the morning, which should last into the early overnight hours. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK/MJM NEAR TERM...ES SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...JTC