FXUS61 KBGM 241818 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 218 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Several disturbances will move through the region late this week bringing rounds of lake effect rain and even high elevation snow showers. High pressure building in Sunday will lead to largely dry conditions through early next week before another system approaches the region by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Cold upper level trough remains in place over the Northeast US overnight into Saturday. This will keep intermittent lake effect rain showers coming off lake Ontario/Erie into portions of Central NY and the northern tier of PA. The westerly flow turns northwest overnight as 850mb temperatures fall to around -4C over the region. As overnight lows fall into the low to mid-30s some wet snow flakes or graupel can certainly mix in at times; especially over the hilltops. The pattern remains much the same on Saturday, with a cold NW flow still in place over the region. This will keep conditions partly sunny to mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered lake effect rain showers around...mainly in Central NY. 850mb temperatures hold steady around -4C as a reinforcing 500mb trough slides in from the north. This will keep high temperatures below average in the mid-40s to lower 50s. The north-northwest flow continues Saturday night, but weak surface high pressure also starts to build. Overall, skies look to remain partly/mostly cloudy and a few lake effect rain and snow showers are still expected. For locations that clear out more patchy fog or freezing fog is also possible as lows dip down into the well into the 30s. Winds diminish overnight, and likely decouple in the valleys. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A cold, dry surface high pressure system will be over the region Sunday into Monday as the upper level low slides east into Northern New England. The surface winds turn north-northeast, increasing the dry air advection over the area. Sunday will feature partly sunny skies with highs again in the mid 40s to lower 50s. It is looking very cold Sunday night as skies clear and winds become light and variable. High pressure will be centered just to our north and overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid-20s to low 30s. Monday features mostly sunny and cool conditions with light winds and highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s. Another cold night expected Monday night. Surface ridging remains in place, but a closed 500mb low will also be overhead. Overall dry and partly cloudy conditions continue with lows again in the mid-20s to lower 30s. This is around 5-8 degrees below average for the end of October. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Starting off dry and mostly sunny on Tuesday as the dry northeasterly flow continues with slightly below average temperatures continuing. Clouds gradually increase Tuesday night out ahead of the next system, with seasonably cool lows in the 30s. A very complex and somewhat uncertain weather pattern is then shaping up for mid to low week. We have a lingering upper level low over the Northeast, a newly developing upper level trough/low sliding across the Mid-South and tropical cyclone Melissa tracking over the Atlantic basin. It is likely that some sort of coastal low will develop during this timeframe, bring a period of unsettled and showery weather to our area. The details remain unclear and very uncertain at this time. Therefore, the official forecast followed the NBM ensemble guidance. This brings a chance for showers starting later on Wednesday and continuing through Friday. Temperatures look to remain cool and slightly below average...with highs in the mid- 40s to low 50s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Lake effect rain showers will persist across CNY with SYR and RME seeing MVFR cigs and vis with rain passing through. As winds become more NW later this afternoon, ITH and SYR will be under the lake effect clouds with RME likely going VFR. ELM, BGM, and AVP are a little too far from the lakes to get MVFR cigs and will likely stay VFR over the next 24 hours. Outlook... Saturday afternoon...Occasional restrictions possible with lake effect clouds and rain showers, especially at the Central NY terminals. Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR, occasional morning fog possible at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK/MJM NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM LONG TERM...MJM AVIATION...AJG