FXUS61 KBGM 241748

AFDBGM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Binghamton NY

148 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Several disturbances will move through the region late this

week bringing rounds of lake effect rain showers. High pressure

building in Sunday will lead to largely dry conditions through

early next week before another system approaches the region by 

the middle of next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Upper trough remains over the region again today with low level

flow turning more to the WNW. This will bring cool conditions 

across CNY with highs only in the upper 40s to the low to mid

50s. Lows will be back into the low to mid 30s tonight in most 

areas. However the Tug Hill will see upper 20s overnight, and

if there is any lingering lake effect rain showers they could 

change over to light snow across the high terrain of CNY and 

northern Oneida County, but little to no accumulation is 

expected and any precip chance remain low at 15-20 percent.



Upper trough slides east of the area on Saturday and 

ridging starts building in. However, with cool NW flow

continuing across the lakes, there will still be some potential

for lake effect showers in Central NY. Temperatures will remain

cool with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure and much drier air is expected on Sunday. There

remains some flow off the lakes early in the day, but thinking

this will result in mostly lake effect clouds. The ridge will

continue to build Sunday night and with clearing skies, good

radiational cooling will send lows down into the 20s across much

of the area.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Surface high pressure is expected to remain centered over 

eastern Quebec Monday and much of Tuesday keeping our area 

largely dry. Not much has changed in the model solutions with

the 0Z guidance. Forecast details mid week on has a lot of uncertainty

with the potential for a strong coastal system. The eventual

track of this system will determine if our area sees rain as 

early as Wednesday and possibly persisting through the remainder

of the week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Lake effect rain showers will persist across CNY with SYR and

RME seeing MVFR cigs and vis with rain passing through. As winds

become more NW later this afternoon, ITH and SYR will be under

the lake effect clouds with RME likely going VFR. ELM, BGM, and

AVP are a little too far from the lakes to get MVFR cigs and

will likely stay VFR over the next 24 hours. 



Outlook... 



Saturday afternoon...Occasional restrictions possible with lake

effect clouds and rain showers, especially at the Central NY 

terminals.



Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR, occasional morning fog

possible at ELM.



&&



.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PA...None.

NY...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK

NEAR TERM...DK/MPK

SHORT TERM...DK/MPK

LONG TERM...DK/MPK

AVIATION...AJG