FXUS61 KBGM 240009 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 809 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Several disturbances will move through the region late this week bringing rounds of lake effect rain showers. High pressure building in Sunday will lead to largely dry conditions through early next week before another system approaches the region by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A broad upper level trough will remain over the region tonight through Friday night before lifting northeast and out of the area Saturday. Persistent west to northwest flow over Lakes Erie and Ontario will keep lake effect rain showers around the area as a cool, Canadian air mass aloft with 850mb temperatures around 0 to 2C streams over the warmer Great Lakes, which have water temperatures averaging 13 to 15C. A shortwave embedded in the flow near the base of the trough will help shift rain showers a bit farther south late this afternoon and evening from the NYS Thruway corridor and across more of CNY and the Twin Tiers before lifting back northward later tonight. We'll see something similar tomorrow afternoon as another embedded shortwave approaches and the flow turns a bit more northwesterly, sending scattered lake effect rain showers farther south and east from the Thruway corridor into the Twin Tiers and Catskills. Lows tonight will be in the mid and upper 30s. With a more northwesterly flow tomorrow, it will be a touch cooler across CNY compared to this afternoon as highs tomorrow range from the upper 40s to the low 50s, while much of NE PA and the southern Catskills are in the low and mid 50s. Lows will be back into the low and mid 30s for most Friday night, but upper 20s toward the Tug Hill, and with 850mb temperatures dipping down to around -3 to -4C, lake effect rain showers can mix with and even change over to light snow across the high terrain of CNY and northern Oneida County, but no accumulation would be expected. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As previously mentioned, the broad upper level trough will lift out of the area Saturday and surface high pressure will start to build in overhead. With winds still out of the northwest and the cool air aloft, isolated lake effect rain showers are still possible Saturday, mainly for CNY. Sunday is shaping up to be a largely dry day. A shortwave does drop in from the north, but much drier air moves in this day which should limit lake effect development along with the flow becoming more northerly. As high pressure settles in north of New England and the flow becomes more east to northeast, dry conditions are expected to take hold Sunday night. Highs this weekend range from the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Overnight lows trend colder as high pressure builds in and skies begin to clear. Lows Saturday night are expected to be mainly in the 30s, while Sunday night falls back mainly into the 20s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure is expected to remain centered over eastern Quebec Monday and much of Tuesday keeping our area largely dry. Mid-to-late week is where uncertainty returns with the formation of a broad storm system to our south. There is some question to its placement and ultimate track, but it may bring some rain to the area as early as Wednesday. Highs are expected to be fairly seasonable in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... While VFR conditions are expected at KAVP through the next 24 hours (at least through 00Z Saturday), the Central NY terminals are expected to fluctuate between VFR and MVFR ceilings through most of the period, especially at KSYR, KRME, and KITH. There will also be some scattered lake effect rain showers at KRME and KSYR,which may bring some brief visby restrictions as well. Light west-southwest winds overnight between 4-8 kts expected, increasing slightly and turning west-northwest on Friday 7-15 kts. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible with lake effect clouds and rain showers, especially at the Central NY terminals. Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK NEAR TERM...DK SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK AVIATION...BJG/MJM