FXUS61 KBGM 211811

AFDBGM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Binghamton NY

211 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Cloud cover was increased for all of CNY into the Southern Tier

as the clouds have been slow to scatter out. SPC's marginal risk

was expanded northward to near the NY/PA border tomorrow with a

sliver of slight risk introduced in far southern Luzerne county. 



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) A clipper system moving through tomorrow brings steady rain 

north of the Southern Tier and potential thunderstorms to NEPA, 

some of which could contain gusty winds.



2) An active pattern with frequent clipper systems next week, 

bringing light precipitation chances and frequent temperature 

swings. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1... 

A clipper system moves through late tonight into tomorrow with 

a warm front lifting into CNY. Temperatures overnight with the 

warm front lifting in will be above freezing region wide, 

forecast soundings also showing warm air aloft so the 

precipitation type is expected to be rain for the area 

overnight. The Southern Tier and southward is in the warm sector

of the low. Forecast soundings and mid and upper level RH 

fields show that there will be plenty of clouds. This will limit

the heating for most of the area but the best chance for 

clearing will be in southern NEPA. It will be hard to overcome 

the low level inversion in the warm sector for our area but 

elevated instability will still lead to thunderstorms for most 

of NEPA in the late afternoon. Mid level lapse rates are around 

6.5 C/km and 7.5 C/km. With the 0-6 km shear around 55 to 60 

knots, some larger hail is possible in the stronger storms with 

elevated CAPE getting up around 500-1000 J/kg. Wind threat is 

uncertain as that would be dependent on the size of the cold 

pool that forms in the storm to break through the stable layer 

or if there could be enough sun for storms to be more surface 

based. Current SPC outlook is for a marginal risk across far 

southern Luzerne county.



KEY MESSAGE 2... 

With the strong ridge of high pressure over the Desert 

Southwest slowly building into the high plains next week, we 

will be on the NE edge of the ridge with frequent 500 mb 

shortwaves propagating around the northern edge of the ridge. 

Given the cooler temperatures in New England under a trough, we 

could see a few snow flakes mix in at times, especially in the 

higher elevations of CNY and Catskills during the overnight 

hours with any of these shortwaves. For the most part, given the

higher sun angle and most of the precipitation with these 

shortwaves falling on the warm air advection side of the lows, 

precipitation types should be mostly rain. There is low 

potential for lake effect snow Monday night with 850 mb temps 

falling to <-10C, and then again Friday into Saturday as GEFS 

and EPS ensemble probabilities of less than -10C at 850 get over

50 to 75% for CNY into the Tug Hill. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Gradual improvements are expected this afternoon with lingering

MVFR to Fuel Alt conditions at most sites. Once restrictions 

lift, VFR conditions are expected late afternoon into the 

evening. Restrictions will be possible tonight as a system 

brings scattered rain and snow showers to the region. Some 

models are showing showers across the region while others are 

not as widespread. For now, confidence was too low to include 

showers at AVP.



Northerly winds will become light and variable late today.

Overnight, winds become more southerly and some gusts around 15

kts will be possible. While borderline, guidance was showing

some low-level wind shear (LLWS) at some terminals late in the

TAF period. Model soundings also support this, so it was added

to all terminals except BGM.



Outlook:



Sunday...Restrictions possible as another front pushes through

the area from the NW with scattered showers.



Monday through Tuesday...High pressure building in across the 

Northeast with mainly VFR conditions; Low chance for off-and-on

snow showers in Central NY and possible restrictions with

morning fog.



Wednesday...Cold front begins to move in from the west with 

rain and snow showers as well as potential restrictions.



Thursday... Warm front pushes up from the southwest with

restrictions possible.



&&



.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PA...None.

NY...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...AJG

AVIATION...BTL/ES