FXUS61 KBGM 201746 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 146 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast is warmer today and removed any mention of freezing rain and lowered snowfall totals in Northern Oneida County to just a coating. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread rain event will move across the area today with a passing low pressure system. 2) Seasonably mild, dry weather expected Saturday. Then the next low pressure system passes over or just south of the area Sunday into Monday with a period of steady rain, potentially changing to some snow early Monday morning. 3)Below average temperatures return for the early to middle portion of next week, along with a chance of snow showers at times. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A fast moving low pressure system will drop southeast across the region today. Rain will develop across the Finger Lakes Region by mid to late morning and then drops south and east across the area through the day. Widespread rain amounts will be near a half inch with locally higher amounts possible. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s to 50s for much of the region. The rain exits the area off to the east shortly after sunset, with a return to dry and mostly cloudy weather during the overnight period. Low temperatures will dip down into the upper 20s to 30s over the region. KEY MESSAGE 2... Weak high pressure under a northwest flow settles into the area for Saturday with dry and quiet conditions. A warm front approaches and begins to move through the area Saturday night with some light rain or snow possible. Low pressure will track along the NY/PA border Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Latest trends in the models bring warmer air further northward with an area of steady rain likely across the region with temperatures into the 50s and even low 60s across the Twin Tiers and Northeast PA. As the low exits Sunday night into Monday morning, colder air filters in and any lingering moisture will change back to snow with very light accumulations possible. A much colder air mass continues to build over the area into Monday, with 850mb temperatures falling to around or just below -10C...there will likely be some lingering scattered snow showers or flurries through the day and gusty NW winds. KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure builds over the area for Tuesday, with a colder than average air mass remaining in place. The next frontal system could push in by the middle of next week with a chance for more rain or snow showers. This feature will keep temperatures at or slightly below average for Wednesday as it appears to be a glancing shot of cold Canadian air behind it. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rain is moving in from the west and will likely lead to at least a few brief periods of IFR through 0Z this evening. Stronger winds aloft over the Mohawk valley has lead to a continuation of some LLWS at RME so the time of that was extended. Tonight, low stratus moves in behind the departing front. ITH may see some freezing drizzle in the early morning hours. SYR, RME, and BGM also have a potential but the chances are lower so no FZDZ was included in the TAF this period. With the rain, ELM does have a chance at some fog or freezing fog after 7Z. Tomorrow, the stratus will begin to scatter out around 15Z to 18Z, with AVP clearing first and likely SYR, RME, and ITH holding on to clouds the longest. Outlook: Saturday Afternoon/night...Mainly VFR. Sunday...Restrictions possible as another front pushes through the area from the NW with scattered showers and low potential for thunder in the Southern Tier and south. Monday through Tuesday...High pressure building in across the Northeast with VFR conditions expected aside from the potential for morning fog. Wednesday...Another front begins to move in from the west with potential restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPK/MJM AVIATION...AJG