FXUS61 KBGM 190530 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 130 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected through Tuesday, before scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday night through Wednesday. It then dries out once again and turns slightly warmer for the end of the week into the first half of the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 235 PM Update: High pressure will keep conditions dry through Tuesday. With a cool airmass in place and decent radiational cooling conditions, tonight will be cool with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Tuesday will then feature another day with mostly sunny skies. As the high pressure system moves to the east, a southerly return flow will develop which will allow for temperatures to be slightly warmer than today (highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s). .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 235 PM Update: A shortwave will move through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with increasing convergence along an inverted surface trough. 12Z model guidance has trended upwards with QPF with this feature. NBM has lagged a bit with this upwards trend, so blended in some of the latest CAMs data to bump the forecast QPF up a bit. All of this being said, with how dry it has been recently, this rainfall should not cause any flooding issues and it will actually be welcomed by most. As the boundary dissolves, just a slight chance of showers are expected to linger into Thursday for some locations, followed by warmer yet dry conditions under high pressure Friday. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will be in the 70s areawide, with overnight lows generally in the mid-50s to lower 60s. By Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, high temperatures are forecast to rise several degrees, up into the lower to mid 80s. Dry and mostly sunny weather is in the forecast for Friday, with gradually increasing clouds and a slight chance for t'storms by Saturday. Chances for scattered showers and storms increase Saturday night and Sunday as a stronger front and upper level trough approach the area. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Conditions will be mainly VFR though ELM may be the exception. While there is little support for fog at ELM, the tempo group remains as the temperature is cooling closer to the dewpoint. There is a bit more confidence for brief MVFR ceilings around 12z as low clouds creep north early this morning. These lower ceilings are moving northward and nearing AVP. Guidance kept conditions VFR in the valley and at the airport but a tempo group was added for MVFR ceilings as observations upwind have already gone down. The next system moves in from the west tonight and will bring showers to at least ELM and ITH prior to the end of the TAF period. Ceilings will begin to fall as this system moves into the region. Light and variable winds will pick up by midday with gusts of 15 kts expected at the Central NY terminals. Winds remain breezy tonight. Outlook... Wednesday...Chance for showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible. Thursday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance for a shower. Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday...Mainly VFR. Low chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG DISCUSSION... AVIATION...BTL