FXUS61 KBGM 060042

AFDBGM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Binghamton NY

842 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Marginal risk of thunderstorms in Central New York to Finger 

Lakes this afternoon-early evening, was expanded to include into

the Twin Tiers.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this 

afternoon through early evening from Central New York to the 

Twin Tiers. A few may contain damaging wind gusts.



2) With a rainy cold front slipping through the region Wednesday,

cooler weather will prevail for the next several days. This

could include patchy frost early Friday morning.



3) Disturbances will continue to pivot over our region this

weekend into early next week, around a cold upper low in 

Canada. This will keep our weather cool and unsettled with

occasional showers.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Warm and windy conditions continue this afternoon ahead of a

cold front entering the region, with 70s to near 80 degree

temperatures yet dewpoints only in the upper 40s-lower 50s. The

wide dewpoint depressions will factor into the limited coverage

of thunderstorms this afternoon, yet also point to the potential

of strong gusty winds mixing down. Even in the absence of

storms, wind gusts will frequently reach the 30s mph range, and

so if a heavy convective cores can get established it would not

take much to mix down damaging gusts beyond 40 mph. The Storm 

Prediction Center expanded the Marginal Risk of Severe 

Thunderstorms to not just Central New York-Finger Lakes but also

into the Twin Tiers. The thunderstorm potential should quickly 

drop off tonight with the loss of daytime heating, and thus the 

severe potential likewise is much lower in the Wyoming Valley to

Poconos where it will take deeper into the evening for any 

activity to reach. The air is also drier in those areas.



KEY MESSAGE 2...

Despite the pre-frontal clusters of storms, more of the rain

will occur along and behind the front as we go into Wednesday.

Highs will be early in the day especially in the Finger Lakes, 

as the front gradually slips through the region. A pretty raw

morning is anticipated with cooling temperatures and steady

rain. While embedded thunder cannot totally be ruled out east of

I-81, it is doubtful. All told we are anticipating rainfall

totals of half inch to inch for most of the region, which

including the initial batch of storms this afternoon-evening,

may push parts of Central New York past an inch. That said, the

rain will be spread out enough for flooding to not be a problem,

though there will be the more typical standing water and mud in

the poor drainage spots. The already elevated water levels of

area lakes and rivers will remain so.



There should be enough mixing and/or waves of cloud cover 

Wednesday night to limit frost potential. However, we will be on

the edge of a surface high Thursday night. If enough clearing 

occurs, patchy frost may be an issue in areas where the growing

season has begun.



KEY MESSAGE 3... 

A large upper low will be centered over Eastern Canada late this

week through early next week. In addition to keeping a feed

going for cooler-than-normal temperatures over our region, 

multiple disturbances will also pivot around the low for chilly

and unsettled weather. Though it will be dry much of the time,

intermittent waves of showers can be expected during the Friday

through Monday time period. In the latest model guidance, Saturday

daytime, and Sunday afternoon-evening, appear to be the more 

likely windows for showers.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR ceilings will quickly fall to MVFR/IFR this evening. 

Showers moving from southwest to northeast will continue to 

spread into the region overnight, maintaining these restrictions

across all central NY terminals. AVP is expected to remain VFR 

tonight, with restrictions arriving tomorrow morning as showers 

move in. Winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming 

gusty tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots at select 

sites.



Outlook:



Wednesday afternoon-early evening...Rain showers ending but 

ceiling restrictions will linger; then gradual improvement evening.



Wednesday night through Thursday night...Mainly VFR, though

valley fog possible in pre-dawn hours each morning at KELM.

 

Friday night through Sunday...Cool and unsettled period with 

intermittent chances for showers and restrictions.



&&



.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PA...None.

NY...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...MDP

AVIATION...ES