FXUS61 KBGM 041732 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 132 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added in a chance for sprinkles or very light showers this morning across north-central NY. Increased cloud cover through late morning as a band of clouds traverses the area from west to east. Increased temperatures by 1-2 degrees this afternoon, as it becomes sunny. Also bumped up winds and wind gusts across the area as soundings show deep boundary layer mixing up to 700mb, with average winds in this layer around 25 kts. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures will trend warmer to start the week with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday. 2) Slow moving frontal boundary pushes through mid-week with additional rounds of showers. 3)Another broad trough in place for the weekend bringing more cool and showery weather. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will continue to slide off the east coast today. This will result in an increase of southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front. The front stays far enough west for one more dry day. With sunshine, temperatures should get well into the 60's today and 70's on Tuesday. The increased moisture coupled with the lift from the approaching cold front looks sufficient to develop some scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night. Modeled and ensemble guidance does show indications for some modest 0-6KM shear of 30-40 knots and about 500 J/KG CAPE. If the NAM model soundings pan out some gusty winds may be realized with any thunderstorms. Both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon look rather gusty with inverted V soundings showing up. KEY MESSAGE 2... Exact timing of the frontal passage Tuesday night into Thursday is still somewhat uncertain leading to lower confidence on Wednesday's temperatures. Precipitation looks to become more stratiform as low pressure brings a more widespread rainfall Wednesday. Total rainfall for the two day period looks to be around an inch, not sufficient for a flood threat at this time. The front potentially is still close enough for additional showers on Thursday with a cooling trend starting. KEY MESSAGE 3... Conditional conditions for frost once again Friday morning if clearing can occur. Attention then turns to the development of a broad trough of low pressure returning cooler and showery conditions this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Conditions will be be VFR throughout the TAF period. Southeasterly winds will be sustained at 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 25 kts this afternoon. Overnight, winds will be slightly less strong but still gusty. Then winds become more southerly Tuesday morning and get stronger through midday. Peak gusts of near 30 kts will be possible at most terminals. Beginning around 03-04z, low-level wind shear (LLWS) will be possible at all terminals with speeds of 40 to 45 kts. Isolated to scattered showers are be possible at SYR and RME between 16 and 18z Tuesday, though confidence was too low to include with this update. Outlook: Tuesday Afternoon...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at Central NY terminals starting in the late afternoon with restrictions possible under heavier rain. Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible from rain showers and thunderstorms. Friday through Saturday...Chances for showers and restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJM/MWG AVIATION...BTL