FXUS61 KALY 250531 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 131 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Lake effect rain showers will gradually diminish tonight as an upper level disturbance departs and high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will bring drier conditions this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will run slightly below normal through much of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... We remain under the influence of an upper level trough overhead as individual shortwaves rotate through the region. One of these will cross the area through this afternoon with scattered lake- effect and diurnally driven rain showers. These showers will begin to diminish by this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Tonight, the upper trough will begin to depart the region to the east as surface high pressure builds in from the west. This will begin to weaken the lake-effect response and with flow becoming more northwesterly, most areas will trend drier by Saturday. Still, an isolated shower cannot be ruled out, mainly across the higher terrain, but expect a mainly dry day. On Sunday, another upper-level low will build over the region. This could generate a few isolated showers, mainly across the higher terrain, but most areas once again will remain dry with surface high pressure nearby. High temperatures this weekend will be generally in the 40s and 50s with lows each night in the 30s with some 20s across the higher elevations. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure near the region will continue to bring mainly dry weather across the region through the first half of next week. By mid- to late week, forecast confidence decreases on the potential for some additional rainfall. Multiple upper- level disturbances will be in place across the eastern CONUS into the western Atlantic. The phasing (or lack thereof) will result in whether or not a storm system tracks close enough to the region to bring some rainfall. Phasing of these upper systems would increase the potential for some rainfall while a lack of phasing or more progressive nature of these features could maintain dry conditions with high pressure overhead. Trends will continue to be monitored over the coming days. Will run with NBM probabilities for mid- to late week which will result in 15-40% PoPs for each day. Temperatures will continue to run near to slightly below normal through the period with highs in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s with some upper 20s across the higher elevations. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period. The only exceptions looks to be occasional MVFR cigs at KPSF due to westerly upslope flow and possible MVFR vsby at KGFL with just a few breaks in the clouds allowing for some brief light fog through 12z. VFR conditions should prevail at all sites after 12z with BKN mid level cigs developing as the next disturbance moves through. Winds will initially be westerly around 3-8 kt, becoming northwest and increasing to 5-10 kt by late this morning. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...33 SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM...33 AVIATION...07