FXUS61 KALY 242340

AFDALY



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Albany NY

740 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

Lake effect rain showers will gradually diminish tonight as an

upper level disturbance departs and high pressure builds in from

the west. High pressure will bring drier conditions this

weekend into early next week. Temperatures will run slightly

below normal through much of next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

We remain under the influence of an upper level trough overhead

as individual shortwaves rotate through the region. One of these

will cross the area through this afternoon with scattered lake-

effect and diurnally driven rain showers. These showers will

begin to diminish by this evening with the loss of daytime

heating. Tonight, the upper trough will begin to depart the

region to the east as surface high pressure builds in from the 

west. This will begin to weaken the lake-effect response and 

with flow becoming more northwesterly, most areas will trend 

drier by Saturday. Still, an isolated shower cannot be ruled 

out, mainly across the higher terrain, but expect a mainly dry 

day. On Sunday, another upper-level low will build over the 

region. This could generate a few isolated showers, mainly 

across the higher terrain, but most areas once again will remain

dry with surface high pressure nearby.



High temperatures this weekend will be generally in the 40s and

50s with lows each night in the 30s with some 20s across the 

higher elevations.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Surface high pressure near the region will continue to bring

mainly dry weather across the region through the first half of

next week. By mid- to late week, forecast confidence decreases

on the potential for some additional rainfall. Multiple upper-

level disturbances will be in place across the eastern CONUS

into the western Atlantic. The phasing (or lack thereof) will

result in whether or not a storm system tracks close enough to 

the region to bring some rainfall. Phasing of these upper 

systems would increase the potential for some rainfall while a 

lack of phasing or more progressive nature of these features 

could maintain dry conditions with high pressure overhead.

Trends will continue to be monitored over the coming days. Will

run with NBM probabilities for mid- to late week which will 

result in 15-40% PoPs for each day. Temperatures will continue 

to run near to slightly below normal through the period with 

highs in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s with some upper 

20s across the higher elevations.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Through 00z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals

this evening as clouds begin to erode along with diminishing

showers in most areas. Throughout the night tonight, mainly VFR

conditions are anticipated to prevail as valley areas experience

downsloping to mitigate clouding back up as an upper level

disturbance passes. However, upslope flow at KPSF could allow

for some MVFR ceilings early tomorrow morning. Additionally,

while confidence is low in this element of the forecast, KGFL

could see a brief reduction in visibility due to light mist

before sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are set to remain in

tact with light winds under 10 kt primarily out of the 

northwest.





Outlook...



Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.



&&



.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.

NY...None.

MA...None.VT...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...33

SHORT TERM...33

LONG TERM...33

AVIATION...37