FXUS02 KWBC 191900

PMDEPD



Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

300 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Valid 12Z Sun Mar 22 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 26 2026



...Anomalous early season heat wave across the Southwest abating 

somewhat early next week but may rebuild midweek...





...Overview...



The medium-range forecast period should feature an anomalous upper

high hovering near the southwestern border of the U.S. while brief

ridging early next week in the eastern U.S. will be replaced by 

broad troughing midweek. In the West, stronger ridging appears to 

be the current model trend early next week before significant 

troughing reaches the Pacific Northwest and advances farther 

southeast into the western U.S. from midweek onward.





...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...



Guidance generally shows good agreement on the large scale pattern

evolution over the CONUS through the period, but notable 

differences in the details. There remain some timing uncertainties 

with a shortwave/surface low pressure system moving from the 

Midwest to the Northeast, with the 06z GFS a bit stronger/west with

the system resulting in much higher snow totals across the 

interior Northeast. By next week, deterministic guidance continues 

to trend towards stronger ridging over the West, which is in 

agreement with the ensemble means. Again, the 06z GFS was 

flatter/weaker with this ridging as a result of faster/stronger 

troughing moving into the Northwest later in the period.



For the WPC 500mb and surface progs, was able to use a blend of 

the deterministic guidance the first half of the period. Increased 

the weighting of the ensemble means to 60 percent of the blend by 

the end of the period to mitigate the smaller scale detail 

differences. Did not include the GFS at all in the blend due to 

issues described above. Generally, this approach maintained good 

continuity with the previous WPC forecast.





...Weather/Hazards Highlights...



The medium-range forecast period will begin on Sunday with the 

record-breaking early season heatwave in the western U.S. abating a

bit due to cold air intruding into the northern and central 

Plains. Thereafter, more widespread high temperatures 20 to 30+ 

degrees above normal appear to return over the western U.S. on 

Wednesday before a rather strong cold front penetrates inland 

through much of the western U.S. and into the northern Plains by 

around Thursday. Numerous record high temperatures will likely be 

broken once again across the Southwest followed by the southern 

Plains.



Across the central Plains to the Midwest, recent model trends are 

indicating stronger ridging on Sunday. This translates to a 

stronger and farther northward placement of the warm front across 

the Midwest and a stronger surge of the cold air down the northern 

and central Plains.



Wintry precipitation could affect New England particularly the 

interior sections with the passage of the low pressure wave on 

Sunday, with the models trending toward a slower ejection of the 

wave. This would keep a wintry mix farther inland and rain farther 

south across the Mid-Atlantic although the details are far from 

certain. There will likely be a brief warm-up for the East Coast 

region this weekend ahead of the strong cold front, with highs 

expected to be well into the 60s and 70s for many areas. Highs 

should return to slightly below normal levels by Monday and Tuesday

as a Canadian surface high builds in from the north.



Across the Pacific Northwest, with the approach of a deep upper 

trough early next week, a return of rain and mountain snow is 

likely, with Tuesday to Wednesday being the time period of 

receiving the heaviest precipitation. Florida could see some 

showers and thunderstorms linger near the east coast due to the 

cold front becoming stationary in the vicinity.



Santorelli/Kong





Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC 

medium range hazards outlook chart at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php



WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, 

quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall 

outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat 

indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw



































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