FXUS01 KWBC 250729

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

328 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025



Valid 12Z Sat Oct 25 2025 - 12Z Mon Oct 27 2025



...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to bring a

flash flood and severe weather threat from the Southern Plains to

the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday...



...Atmospheric river activity across the Pacific Northwest

continues into the weekend with heavy lower elevation rain and

mountain snow expected...



An energetic upper-wave and accompanying surface frontal system

will continue to support multiple organized clusters of

thunderstorms Saturday from the Southern Plains east through the

ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Very moist, southerly Gulf

flow aided by a strong low-level jet will fuel heavy

rain-producing storms with rain rates upwards of 2" per hour. The

multiple rounds of storms may lead to rainfall totals as high as

3-5 inches, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4)

in effect from eastern Texas/the ArkLaTex east to the Lower

Mississippi Valley for the threat of some scattered instances of

flash flooding. In addition, moderate instability and sufficient

shear as winds increase with the passing upper wave will support

some more robust, severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction

Center has also included a Slight Risk of severe weather (level

2/5) from central Texas east to the Lower Mississippi Valley for

the threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few

tornadoes. The system will continue east Sunday with storms

spreading into the Southeast. More limited instability with the

bulk of precipitation expected on the cooler side of the frontal

system should keep the threat of flash flooding and severe weather

isolated, but widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is

still expected, especially where more instability will be located

along the central Gulf Coast.



To the west, a series of Pacific storm systems bringing an influx

of Pacific moisture/atmospheric river will continue to lead to

heavy coastal and lower elevation rain and high elevation mountain

snow across the Pacific Northwest/northern California this

weekend. Some isolated flash flooding could occur Saturday along

upslope regions of the coastal ranges and Cascades, with the risk

diminishing on Sunday as cold front passages bring cooler, drier

air, reducing heavy rainfall chances. Precipitation chances will

spread further inland with the system(s) across the northern Great

Basin/Rockies Saturday and into the northern Plains by Sunday with

similar expectations for mainly lower elevation rain and higher

elevation snow. Some snow may mix in for higher mountain valleys

in the northern Rockies Sunday-Monday, but little to no

accumulations are anticipated. Very strong, gusty winds are also

expected, especially along the Pacific Coast and into some of the

higher elevations of the northern Rockies.



Elsewhere, some daily thunderstorm activity can be expected along

the Atlantic coast of Florida with a lingering front nearby. Daily

lake-effect showers and thunderstorms downwind of Lakes Erie and

Ontario should finally begin to taper off Saturday and especially

into Sunday. Temperatures will generally be near to below Fall

averages from the East Coast west through the Great Lakes, Ohio to

Middle Mississippi Valleys, and central Plains with post-frontal

high pressure in place, as highs remain mainly in the 50s and 60s.

Cooler temperatures will also come to much of the Southeast by

Sunday following a cold front passage, with highs dropping into

the 60s. Warmer, above average temperatures will remain mostly

shunted to Florida, the Gulf Coast, and Texas, with highs in the

70s and 80s. A pocket of well above average highs into the 90s

continues for south Texas, where a couple daily record highs could

be matched or broken. Upper-ridging stretching from portions of

the interior West into the northern Plains will continue to bring

well above average highs this weekend, with 60s and even some 70s

likely. Multiple cold front passages across the Pacific

Northwest/northern California into the Great Basin will bring well

below average temperatures, with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s. 



Putnam





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



$$