FXUS01 KWBC 241958

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

356 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Valid 00Z Sat Oct 25 2025 - 00Z Mon Oct 27 2025



...Widespread showers and thunderstorms to bring a flash flood and

severe weather threat from the Southern Plains to the Lower

Mississippi Valley...



...A Pacific system accompanied by an influx of

moisture/atmospheric river will bring lower elevation heavy rain

and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest this weekend...



Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today

across the Southern Plains as plentiful Gulf moisture returns

northward ahead of an upper-level trough and associated frontal

system. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is

outlined across portions of the southern Plains today, and over

the ArkLaTex/eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley

Saturday for the threat of scattered flash flooding with these

storms. Severe weather is also a concern with this activity, and

the Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of severe

weather (level 2/5) for portions of Texas today, which shifts east

toward the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow for the threat of

large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.



To the west, heavy coastal rain and high elevation mountain snow

from an early-season atmospheric river is forecast across the

Pacific Northwest and northern California. Isolated instances of

flooding will be possible along upslope portions of the coastal

Ranges and Cascades. Several inches of mountain snow are expected

atop the higher elevations of the Olympics and Cascades heading

into Saturday as cool air flows inland behind a cold front, where

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect. Ahead of the front,

precipitation will expand into the northern Great Basin/Rockies as

the system continues inland, with lower elevation rain and higher

elevation snow. Temperatures should remain warm enough that any

chances for some snow to mix in for higher mountain valleys will

hold off until Sunday, though only minor accumulations are

expected. Some gusty winds will also be possible with the system.

Unsettled weather will continue beyond Saturday as another system

arrives in the Pacific Northwest, ushering in additional chances

of isolated flooding and high-elevation snows on Sunday.



Elsewhere, lake-effect showers will continue downwind of Lakes

Erie and Ontario Friday as cool post-frontal northwesterly flow

moves over the warmer lake waters. Temperature-wise, conditions

will remain around or a bit below average from the Great

Lakes/Ohio Valley to the East Coast following a cold front

passage, with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s. Cooler air

lingering north of the upper-low over the southern Plains will

keep conditions cool throughout the central Plains to Mississippi

Valley with highs in the 50s and 60s here as well. The Southeast

to southern Plains will remain warmer and at or above average,

with highs in the 70s and 80s. Some well above average, near

record tying/breaking high temperatures into the 90s continue for

southern Texas. An upper-level ridge expanding northward from the

Interior West into the northern Plains will bring well above

average highs, particularly for the northern tier locations, with

60s and even some 70s possible. The Pacific system moving into the

West Coast will bring well below average temperatures heading into

the weekend, with highs dropping into the 50s and 60s.



Asherman/Putnam





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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