FXUS01 KWBC 240726

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

323 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Valid 12Z Fri Oct 24 2025 - 12Z Sun Oct 26 2025



...Widespread showers and thunderstorms to bring a flash flood and

severe weather threat from the southern Plains to the Lower

Mississippi Valley...



...A Pacific system accompanied by an influx of

moisture/atmospheric river will bring lower elevation heavy rain

and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest heading into the

weekend...



Showers and thunderstorms are expected to not only continue but

expand in coverage Friday ahead of an upper-low and associated

surface frontal system moving into the southern Plains. Plentiful

moist Gulf return flow will help to fuel heavy downpours with rain

rates as high as 2" per hour. Embedded upper energies will help to

support multiple rounds of storms, potentially organized,

increasing the risk for several inches of rainfall. Slight Risks

of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) have been outlined across

portions of the southern Plains Friday and from the

ArkLaTex/eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday

for the threat of scattered flash flooding, especially for regions

that receive multiple rounds of rainfall given the generally dry

antecedent conditions. In addition, the warm, moist air and

approaching upper-low will provide sufficient instability and

upper-level shear to support severe thunderstorms. The Storm

Prediction Center has included Slight Risks for severe weather

(level 2/5) for western to central Texas Friday and central Texas

to southern Louisiana Saturday for the threat of large hail,

damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.



To the west, an influx of moist Pacific Air/atmospheric river head

of an approaching upper-trough and associated surface frontal

system will bring heavy coastal/lower elevation rain and high

elevation mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and northern

California heading into the weekend. Isolated instances of

flooding will be possible along upslope portions of the coastal

Ranges and Cascades. Several inches of heavy mountain snow is also

forecast for the higher elevations of the Olympics and Cascades,

especially heading into Saturday as cooler air flows inland behind

a cold front and snow-levels drop. Precipitation is also expected

to expand into the northern Great Basin/Rockies into Saturday as

the system continues inland, with lower elevation rain and higher

elevation snow. Temperatures should remain warm enough that any

chances for some snow to mix in for higher mountain valleys will

hold off until Sunday, though only minor accumulations are

expected. Some gusty winds will also be possible with the system.



Elsewhere, lake-effect showers will continue downwind of Lakes

Erie and Ontario Friday as cool post-frontal northwesterly flow

moves over the warmer lake waters. The rest of the country will be

mostly dry. Temperature-wise, conditions will remain around or a

bit below average from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the East

Coast following a cold front passage, with highs mainly in the 50s

and 60s. Widespread lows in the lower to mid-30s Friday morning

have prompted Frost and Freeze-related Advisories and Warnings

from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Cooler air

lingering north of the upper-low over the southern Plains will

keep conditions cool throughout the central Plains to Mississippi

Valley with highs in the 50s and 60s here as well. The Southeast

to southern Plains will remain warmer and at or above average,

with highs in the 70s and 80s. Some well above average, near

record tying/breaking high temperatures into the 90s continue for

southern Texas. An upper-level ridge expanding northward from the

Interior West into the northern Plains will bring well above

average highs, particularly for the northern tier locations, with

60s and even some 70s possible. The Pacific system moving into the

West Coast will bring well below average temperatures heading into

the weekend, with highs dropping into the 50s and 60s.



Putnam





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



$$