FXUS01 KWBC 192004

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

403 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Valid 00Z Fri Mar 20 2026 - 00Z Sun Mar 22 2026



...An anomalously early and record-breaking heatwave continues

into the weekend, while expanding eastward into the Southern

Plains...



...A clipper system will bring snowfall to upstate New York and

New England and a chance for locally strong thunderstorms across

the Ohio Valley tomorrow...



...Critical Risk of fire weather is likely Friday and Saturday

from the northern Plains into the Inter-Mountain West...



A strong mid-level ridge is forecast to dominate much of the

weather through the end of the week into the weekend. The Heat

Risk tool continues to indicate threats for widespread Major to

Moderate impacts across California and Arizona. In terms of local

watches and warnings, Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories

are in effect for the same regions. Expect high temperatures to

challenge and break monthly records for March as the mercury

flirts into the middle and upper 90s across the valleys in

California and into the 100-110 F range for the deserts in Arizona

on Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures will also be quite warm

and provide little relief, relatively for the time of the year,

from the heat as temperatures only fall into the 60s. The heat

dome is expected to shift eastward over the next few days, and

with it, the record breaking heat. The Rockies and the Central and

Southern Plains will see an increase in the quantity of stations

eclipsing potential record March temperatures for Friday and

Saturday. By Saturday, expect maximum temperatures in the middle

to upper 90s across Texas and low to middle 90s as far north as

Nebraska and South Dakota. Moderate Heat Risk impacts will be

possible from these very warm temperatures.



Around the periphery of the heat bubble, a weak frontal system,

otherwise known as a clipper, will move into the Ohio Valley and

the Northeast tomorrow. Areas in New England and upstate New York

are expected to be cold enough for accumulating snow on the order

of 2-5 inches on Friday. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect

as travel could be slippery. On the warmer side of the system,

enough moisture return and upper-level shear could support a

Marginal Risk for severe storms across the eastern Ohio Valley and

the Appalachians. The main threats will be some hail and strong

winds, though a tornado cannot be ruled out, per the Storm

Prediction Center's discussion.



A Critical Risk of fire weather is outlined by SPC for tomorrow

and likely Saturday across the northern Plains westward into the

northern Rockies. This risk is attributed to the anomalous

mid-level ridge anchored across the Southwest U.S.. Warm to hot

temperatures, low relative humidities, and gusty winds will

provide favorable conditions for fire spread. Much of Wyoming and

western South Dakota and Nebraska are under a Red Flag Warning.



A stubborn Atmospheric River along the northern side of the

Western U.S. ridge will maintain locally heavy rainfall over the

Pacific Northwest through Saturday. Expect another 2-3 inches of

rainfall over the next two days, before the storm system begins to

clear the region by Sunday. There is a threat for flooding from

mostly rivers, but continued rainfall over saturated grounds may

still lead to inundation over low-lying regions. As such, a

Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall continues into tomorrow.



Wilder





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php









$$