FXUS01 KWBC 070856

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

455 AM EDT Mon Apr 07 2025



Valid 12Z Mon Apr 07 2025 - 12Z Wed Apr 09 2025



...Moderate to heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms

expected from southeast Virginia to the central Gulf Coast

Monday...



...Winter weather returns from parts of the Great Lakes to the

interior Northeast and northern New England through Tuesday...



...Strong cold front to bring much colder temperatures to the

Eastern U.S. through Wednesday...



...A series Pacific storms will bring unsettled weather to the

Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies through midweek...



Several waves of low pressure along a slow-moving frontal boundary

draped from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast will be the

focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region

on Monday. Plentiful moisture and instability along and out ahead

of the front will support a moderate to heavy rain threat from

portions of southeast Virginia to the central Gulf Coast. Unlike

the past several days, the rain that falls on Monday should not be

overly excessive; however, isolated to scattered instances of

flash flooding cannot be ruled out. As a result, a targeted Slight

Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall was introduced for portions

of southern Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle. A

Marginal Risk (level 1/4) remains in place for much of the

southern Eastern Seaboard into the central Gulf Coast. The

moderate to heavy rain and isolated flash flood threat will come

to an end by Monday night as the cold front picks up speed and

sweeps offshore.



The same areas that are at risk of moderate to heavy rainfall on

Monday are also under the threat of strong to severe

thunderstorms. This is especially the case for parts of northern

Florida, southeast Georgia, and southern South Carolina where the

Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk (level 2/5)

of severe weather. In this region, moisture, instability, and wind

shear will come together to promote the development of

thunderstorms that are capable of producing damaging winds and

perhaps a tornado or two.   



Farther north on the cool side of the front, light to moderate

rain showers will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic and

southern New England on Monday, resulting in a damp start to the

work week. Even farther north across parts of the interior

Northeast and northern New England, the air will become cold

enough to support a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain,

particularly in the higher elevations. While any wintry

accumulations should mostly be light, it could still be enough to

make for some slippery travel across the region. Meanwhile, a

potent low pressure system and strong cold front tracking from the

Great Lakes to northern New England in conjunction with a

deepening wave of low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes will

lead to more widespread snow Monday into Tuesday. Most

accumulations will again remain on the lighter side, but parts of

Upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and especially Maine

have the potential to see accumulations near or exceed 6 inches.

In the wake of the cold front, the bigger story will be the much

colder, more winter-like temperatures that will overtake much of

the Eastern U.S. through the middle part of the week. High

temperatures through this period will be some 10 to 30 degrees

below seasonal averages, with many places across the Northeast and

Mid-Atlantic struggling to get out of the 20s, 30s, and 40s. The

cold air moving over the Great Lakes will also result in

lake-effect snows downwind, leading to the possibility of locally

higher snowfall totals to boot.



Out West, a series of Pacific storms will bring episodes of

unsettled weather to the Pacific Northwest and the northern

Rockies through midweek. These frontal systems will bring Pacific

moisture inland, leading to intermittent shower activity each day.

Rain will fall across coastal locations and the lower elevations

while snow is expected across the high country. The heaviest

snowfall will be confined to the higher elevations of the Olympic

Mountains and the Cascades where several inches up to a few feet

is forecast over the next few days.



Otherwise, mainly dry and tranquil weather is in store for the

remainder of the country through Wednesday with high pressure

largely in control. While temperatures across the East will be

well below normal, a warming trend develops across the West with

warmer than normal temperatures gradually spreading into the

Central U.S by the middle part of the week.



Miller





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$