FXPQ50 PGUM 070757 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 557 PM ChST Mon Apr 7 2025 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite imagery and radar show partly cloudy skies with hardly any showers in the Marianas Waters. The buoys reveal combined seas of 4 to 6 feet, composed mainly of east swell, decaying north swell, and wind waves. && .Discussion... A dry season trade-wind regime remains entrenched in the Marianas. Light to gentle trade winds will continue the next few days, then become gentle to moderate. Showers will remain at isolated or slight chance levels for at least the next several days. This should allow the Keetch-Byram drought index to continue climbing, it's expected to reach 666 Tuesday, and could reach 700 next week, out of a maximum of 800. && .Marine... Moderate seas and mainly gentle winds will make for benign marine conditions throughout the Marianas Waters this week. Anyone who has been waiting for a gentler turn in the weather, it doesn't get much better than this. && .Fire weather... The drought index is creeping higher, but at least in the short term the danger is not that high. Humidities are increasing a bit, and wind speeds will remain subdued. If the wind speeds rise again though, and the drought index hasn't been put back in it's place, we may have a future issue to deal with. That will be our focus for now in fire weather, is to try to identify if and when this future issue may suddenly burst on the scene. && .Eastern Micronesia... A dry trade-wind pattern remains entrenched across eastern Micronesia with little change expected in this pattern through the weekend. There is a weak band of convergence that is currently south of 4N, with a couple of weak trade-wind troughs expected to move through the region, also mainly south of 4N. A couple of the weak troughs, currently near and east of the Date Line look to move through south of Majuro, but could bring enough instability to the region to produce a couple of thunderstorms near Majuro Tuesday into Wednesday. The strongest of these troughs looks to clip Kosrae Wednesday, bringing a short period of low-end scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, to the island. By Wednesday night, the dry pattern will return to Kosrae. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail through the weekend. No changes from previous forecasts for the marine environment. Seas look to remain at or below 7 feet for Kosrae and Pohnpei. Seas will be around 8 feet tonight at Majuro, dropping to between 5 and 7 feet by midweek. Gentle to moderate winds are expected across the region, with occasional fresh winds possible at Pohnpei near the end of the week into the weekend. && .Western Micronesia... A trade-wind trough is still moving through Yap State and is still east of Yap Proper and Palau, so showers are still isolated at both locations. This trough is expected to begin reaching Yap Tuesday afternoon and Palau Tuesday night, increasing showers to scattered with the potential for some isolated thunderstorms. As this trough moves off to the west, drier weather is expected at Yap for the later half of the week and into the weekend. For Palau, modles still show a near-equatorial trough (NET) developing within the region, interacting with a the trade-wind trough in eastern Yap State, which will help to continue scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through most of the week. As the NET moves out of the region this weekend, expected a slightly drier pattern across Palau, but weak trade-wind troughs will bring brief periods of scattered showers as they pass nearby. Drier weather is moving into Chuuk Lagoon and should spread across the state, especially north of 5N. Models continue to support a fairly dry pattern for Chuuk through the rest of the week and throughthe weekend. Combined seas are still around 4 to 6 feet near Palau and Yap, and around 5 to 7 feet across Chuuk State. Seas are should drop a foot or two as the northeast swell weakens slightly Wednesday. Winds are also expected to remain mostly gentle to moderate for the next several days. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Stanko East Micronesia: Kleeschulte West Micronesia: Schank