FXHW01 KWNH 060932

PMDHI 



Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

532 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026



Valid 00Z Thu 07 May 2026 - 00Z Thu 14 May 2026



A surface trough (remnant front) will pass over Hawaii today 

(Wednesday) and disrupt the typical trade wind pattern. Light 

northerly background winds for most areas except the Big Island 

behind the trough could give way to sea and land breezes, with 

clouds/showers following those features. The trough could enhance 

moisture slightly and lead to more showers for the central 

islands, which the HREF shows. After the remnant front fully 

dissipates, winds should gradually veer for a return to moderate 

trades by Thursday or Friday, with some showers in windward/mauka 

areas.



By the weekend, the base of an upper trough could reach southward

into Hawaii. This pattern favors moisture and instability being 

drawn northeastward particularly over Kauai and vicinity ahead of 

a front just north, for potentially enhanced rain chances. The 

upper trough is forecast to develop further into an upper low to 

the northeast of Hawaii early to mid-next week, potentially 

sending more frontal boundaries towards the northern islands. 

ECMWF runs continue to press fronts farther south into Hawaii 

compared to GFS runs. These details are still rather uncertain, 

but will continue to monitor the potential for an active pattern 

with the fronts.



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