FXHW01 KWNH 050851

PMDHI 



Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

451 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026



Valid 00Z Wed 06 May 2026 - 00Z Wed 13 May 2026



Winds are forecast to lessen today (Tuesday) in response to a 

weak remnant front approaching from the north and disrupting the 

typical Pacific highs. A sea/land breeze pattern may set up with 

clouds/showers following those features. On Wednesday the remnant 

front may pass through the northern half of the state and lead to 

a wind shift with a northerly component--though winds generally 

remain weak and the Big Island could maintain a sea/land breeze 

pattern. Moisture does not look to be very strong with this 

feature, but some showers are possible. After the remnant front 

fully dissipates, winds should gradually veer for a return to 

moderate trades by Thursday or Friday.



By the weekend, the base of an upper trough could reach southward

into Hawaii. This pattern favors moisture and instability being 

drawn northeastward across the state ahead of a front to the 

north, especially over Kauai and vicinity, for enhanced rain 

chances. Recent ECMWF runs continue to push the front farther 

southeast toward Maui early to mid-next week, while the GFS stalls

it near the western islands. These details are still rather 

uncertain, but will continue to monitor the potential for a more 

active pattern with the front.



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