FXHW01 KWNH 020754

PMDHI 



Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

254 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026



Valid 00Z Tue 03 Feb 2026 - 00Z Tue 10 Feb 2026



Model guidance remains in fairly good agreement regarding the

synoptic scale evolution across the Central Pacific through the

short term (into Thursday), with again significant divergence in

the guidance appearing toward next weekend.



Through Wednesday, the global guidance all depict a progressive,

positive-tilt shortwave trough lifting northeast of the islands.

The surface front meanwhile approaches Kauai and Oahu Monday

afternoon, accompanied by an uptick in pre-frontal southwesterly

flow. While a brief period of moderate rainfall is expected as the

front traverses Kauai, Oahu, and Maui County late Monday into

Tuesday morning, the progressive movement of the upper 

trough and associated surface front will limit duration and 

amounts, as will the relatively stable conditions aloft.

Meanwhile, the front is still expected to dissipate near the Big 

Island by late Tuesday. Behind the front, a noticeable change in 

airmass is expected as the flow veers northwesterly and brings a 

cooler/drier airmass to the islands. Especially by Tuesday and

Tuesday night, when dewpoints drop into the 50s. 



From late week into the weekend, the pattern aloft amplifies

significantly. Global models and their respective ensembles agree

on a digging longwave trough approaching from the northwest. 

However, considerable spread (and thus lower forecast confidence)

exists regarding the amplitude along with the timing/location of 

the eventual closed/cutoff upper low. Obviously the location of 

amplifying trough axis and any closed low through at least the mid

levels will dictate where the area of maximum downstream 

divergence/difluence will be, along with the axis of highest deep-

layer theta-e, PW, and instability within the Warm Conveyor Belt 

(WCB) -- all of which will factor to where the more widespread 

and heavier precipitation will fall over the weekend. While these

details will likely take a few more forecast cycles to resolve, 

confidence nevertheless continues to grow for a rather unsettled 

pattern across the islands this weekend into early next week, as 

PoPs increase Friday night and peak Saturday and Sunday.



$$



Hurley