FXAK68 PAFC 191330

AFDAFC



Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Anchorage AK

530 AM AKDT Tue Aug 19 2025



.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today

through Thursday)...



An Arctic trough is digging into Southcentral from the northwest

today which is expected to bring rain to much of the region. This

feature can be see quite clearly on GOES 18 imagery from overnight

as it approaches the region. Another relevant feature seen on

satellite is the cloud cover associated with a weak trough that 

extends out of the Gulf and into the eastern Interior of the 

state. This is an additional source of moisture that should help 

increase the rainfall as the digging trough bring the lift 

necessary for precipitation. 



The biggest area of uncertainty in the forecast revolves around

the fate of the Arctic trough for Wednesday and Thursday. A short

wave ridge is building in behind the trough, but it is looking 

more likely that it will not be able to get a good push into 

Southcentral and the trough will end up becoming stationary and 

weakening over the region for Wednesday and Thursday as the 

clearing associated with the ridge will remain along and west of 

the western Alaska Range. This is not expected to produce a lot 

of rain for those days, but instead of bringing in some decent 

sunny breaks throughout the day, will keep skies mostly clouds 

with some showers over the region. 



&&





.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS Days 1

to 3: (This afternoon through Thursday afternoon)... 



The forecast remains largely on track with increasingly active 

weather as we head through the week. A front pushing southeast 

across the Interior this morning has begun to spread light rain 

showers across the inland Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim 

Valley as an upper level trough continues to dig south across the 

state throughout the day today. While the bulk of the rainfall 

associated with this system is expected to remain over 

Southcentral Alaska, widespread light rain chances continue 

through this afternoon for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. By this 

evening, skies will begin to clear across Southwest Alaska as 

transient ridging moves in. This will lead to cooler nighttime 

temperatures from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with 

overnight lows dipping into the low 40s and perhaps even into the 

high 30s for Kuskokwim Valley. Clearer skies will be short-lived, 

however, as cloud cover returns with an approaching Bering Sea 

front Wednesday afternoon. With the front weakening as it 

approaches, rain chances will be fairly low (at around 15%).



The aforementioned front currently moving into the western Bering

will move northeastwards across the Bering Sea, bringing 

southerly winds to 30 kt and light rain to the central Bering 

before weakening through Wednesday morning. Behind this front, 

increasing sea level pressure and an influx of warm, moist air 

will likely allow for low stratus and areas of fog. The current 

fog forecast for the Bering Sea leans a bit aggressive; this area 

may be trimmed down in successive forecast updates as we get a 

better sense of how favorable the environment may be for fog. 

Otherwise, the next features to watch for will be a weak low 

lifting out of the North Pacific and tracking along the Aleutian 

Chain Wednesday evening through Thursday which will be quickly 

followed by a stronger low moving near the Kamchatka Peninsula 

into the Western Bering by Friday morning. 



&&



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Friday through Tuesday)...





For the Bering Sea, the Aleutians and Southwest Alaska: The ridge

of high pressure begins to break down this weekend and retreats 

southward into the North Pacific early next week. Simultaneously,

rounds of precipitation flow through the Bering Sea as astrong 

low moves toward the Bering Strait. Early in the weekend, these 

waves of moisture are forced around the northern side of the high.

As the high flattens and moves southward, signals point toward an

atmospheric river influence early next week resulting in more 

widespread precipitation in the Aleutians and the Southwest 

Mainland. 



For Southcentral: an upper-level low moves through the Interior 

this weekend resulting in mostly cloudy skies and waves of 

moisture and rain through early next week.





&&



.AVIATION...



PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this

afternoon. Winds will remain southerly through the morning, 

becoming variable after 20Z. Ceilings will lower to about 5 kft 

this morning and continue to lower below 5 kft into the afternoon

as rain showers begin to move in from the north. As the rain

subsides this evening, ceilings will rise. 



&&





$$