FXAK68 PAFC 040130

AFDAFC



Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Anchorage AK

530 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2026



.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This

afternoon through Wednesday afternoon)...



Generally expect a wet start to the week as the second of our

back-to-back storm systems reinforces precipitation across

Southcentral. There have been some changes in precipitation

timing as well as areas of increased winds, but the general 

picture remains on track.



The first of our two systems moved in earlier today, bringing 

widespread precipitation over Kodiak Island and the Northern Gulf 

Coast. This front will pivot westwards over Mat-Su, Anchorage, and

Kenai Peninsula through this evening. By early tomorrow morning,

low approaching Kodiak island will begin to push its front into

Southcentral. The Gulf coast (Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince

William Sound) will see its strongest winds and highest

precipitation rates tomorrow afternoon and evening as the front

moves through. However, for Western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage,

and Mat Valley, strong cross-barrier flow will lead to downsloping

and a likely end to precipitation by Monday evening. Precipitation

totals from now through Tuesday night will be on the order of

2-2.5 inches along the Gulf coast, 1.5 inches for Kodiak Island, 1

inch for Eastern Turnagain Arm and interior Kenai Mountains, 0.5-1

inch for the aforementioned downslope areas, and up to 0.5 inches

for much of Copper River Valley.



While the low remains the main player through Wednesday,

conditions gradually improve from late Monday through Tuesday,

transitioning to more of a showery and unsettled regime as the low

weakens.



&&





.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 

1 through 3)...



Ridging continues in the Bering, allowing for lower winds and

precipitation chances in most of the Aleutians. There are areas 

of clearing and areas of lower ceilings accompanying the ridge. A

front in the Western Aleutians will cause gusty winds and 

precipitation in that area. The most activity weatherwise will be 

in the Southwest Mainland with a North Pacific low rising into 

Southern Alaska. The low's front will bring precipitation and 

higher winds to the Southwest Mainland this afternoon. 

Precipitation intensity will slowly rise through Monday. 

Precipitation types will be a mix of rain and snow during night 

and mostly rain during the day. The Kuskokwim Delta Coast will see

less precipitation due to being on the edge of the front. Gap 

winds in Unimak Pass and Cold Bay area will increase in response 

to the low's approach, peaking Monday and decreasing by Tuesday. 

The low will weaken and move into the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday, 

which will gradually decrease precipitation chances and winds 

speeds throughout the day. Cold air advection and lingering 

precipitation behind the low will perhaps allow for light snowfall

in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. By Wednesday, drier and calmer 

weather will settle over most of Southwest Alaska. A stalled front

will allow for higher wind speeds and precipitation chances over 

the Attu area on Wednesday.



-JAR



&&





.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through 

Sunday)...



The long term forecast continues to favor a ridge of high 

pressure over the Bering Sea and a broad trough taking shape over 

the Gulf of Alaska by the end of next week. Generally dry 

conditions are forecast across Southwest Alaska and also the 

Bering Sea, from Saint Lawrence Island to Dutch Harbor while high 

pressure reigns. Across the western Bering yet another front is 

forecast to push into the Aleutians Saturday and Sunday of next 

week with increasing winds and showers. As mentioned, 

Southcentral will remain under the influence of a broader trough 

overthe Gulf. Multiple waves of low pressure lifting through the 

trough will keep the weather pattern unsettled, with rain chances 

essentially lingering from Thursday of next week through the 

weekend across Southcentral.



BL



&&





.AVIATION...



PANC...VFR conditions will gradually give way to MVFR conditions,

possibly with periods of IFR ceilings late tonight, as a steady 

rain moves over the terminal beginning late this evening. Light 

and variable winds will prevail through the overnight hours 

before becoming more northerly around 5 to 8 kt through Monday 

morning. LLWS is a possibility beginning early to mid Monday 

morning as southeasterly wind increase aloft in conjunction with 

the prevailing north- northwesterly surface wind over the 

terminal. Steady rain will become lighter by early to mid-morning 

Monday, with ceilings improving to VFR, as the southeasterly winds

aloft increase. 



&&

$$