FOUS11 KWBC 210715

QPFHSD



Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

315 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Valid 12Z Sat Mar 21 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 24 2026



...Northeast... 

Days 1-2...



A clipper system will move southeast out of central Canada and into

the Northeast this weekend. Snow on the leading edge of the

precipitation shield will move into upstate New York this evening,

then spread across New England tonight. The snow will be

characterized by warm advection. With a high sun angle and

plentiful warm air over much of the eastern half of the country,

the warm air will move into New York and southern New England,

resulting in a changeover to rain on Sunday over much of upstate

New York and into southern New England. Meanwhile, over most of

northern New England, the predominant precipitation type remains as

snow as the back edge of the precipitation quickly pushes east

across New England. 



The southwesterly flow of warm air will be uplifted by the terrain

of the Adirondacks, Green, and White Mountains. Here, the 

combination of upslope and cooler temperatures at higher 

elevations will support multiple inches of snow. The heaviest snow

will fall between early Sunday morning and Sunday evening. In the

valleys, warmer temperatures, high sun angle, and snow mostly

falling during the day should all work to keep snow totals much

lower than the adjacent mountains, though still reaching into

advisory criteria. Where snow rates remain lighter, accumulations

during the day should be greatly tempered, and largely confined to

grassy areas.



WPC snowfall probabilities for the storm total snow over 4 inches 

are high (over 70%) from the northern Adirondacks east across the 

northern Greens of Vermont, northern Whites of New Hampshire, and 

much of southern Maine. For much of northern New Hampshire and 

western Maine, those probabilities are above 90% for 4 inches and

over 70% for 8 inches. As typical with compact storms, the exact

longevity and intensity of any internal heavy snow bands will 

dictate where the highest snowfall totals are observed.



By D3/Monday, a secondary coastal low is expected to form south of

Long Island. The precipitation shield will be narrow and focus 

across southern New England, where temperatures will be warm enough

for mostly (or entirely) rain. Thus, the chances for impactful 

snow on Monday anywhere in the Northeast continue to decrease. 



The chances for significant icing across the CONUS is less than 10

percent. 





Wegman







$$