FOUS11 KWBC 190611

QPFHSD



Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

211 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Valid 12Z Thu Mar 19 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 22 2026



...Upper Great Lakes to the Northeast... 

Days 1-3...



Thanks to a dome of upper-level ridging firmly entrenched over

the West and northerly low-level winds over the Mid-South all but

cutting off Gulf moisture, a quiet pattern with respect to heavy 

snow and icing will continue. The lone cases where light snow

accumulations are anticipated are across the Upper Great Lakes and

Northeast as Canadian clipper systems race across the southern 

tier of the country and occasional pass through. A clipper over 

Ontario will direct a warm front through the Northeast with minor 

snowfall totals (generally a coating-2", with local 2-3" in the 

Adirondacks and White Mountains) through Thursday. As that system 

exits over Atlantic Canada, a more organized clipper will be 

tracking towards Lake Superior. Light snow will ensue along the 

warm front over the U.P. of MI, Thursday night and into Friday AM, 

then race over northern NY and northern New England Friday 

afternoon and evening.



There are some hints in AI guidance (EC-AIFS most notably) that the

clipper could strengthen by the time it reaches Downeast Maine

early Saturday morning. This could lead to locally heavier snowfall

in the Greens, Whites, and northern ME on Saturday. At the moment,

WPC probabilities shows low chances (10-30%) chances for snowfall 

>4" in northern ME with most snowfall generally under 3". But this

will be closely monitored given the generally good performance of 

the EC-AIFS for much of the cold season. 





The chances for significant icing across the CONUS is less than 10

percent. 





Mullinax









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