FOCN45 CWWG 060030 CCB

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM

PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT TUESDAY MAY

5 2026.



ALERTS IN EFFECT...WIND WARNING FOR PAULATUK.



SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...



ALOFT TODAY, AN UPPER HIGH SITS OFF THE COAST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER BRITISH

COLUMBIA TO WESTERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. EAST OF THIS, A LARGE

UPPER VORTEX SITS OVER HUDSON BAY, MANITOBA, ONTARIO, AND WESTERN

QUEBEC. IT IS ANCHORED BY A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND HAS A

SECONDARY DECAYING LOW TRACKING WEST OVER HUDSON BAY TOWARDS ARVIAT,

NU. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS TRACKING ALONG THE LABRADOR COAST

TOWARDS HUDSON STRAIT. LASTLY, A SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM

SOUTHERN GREENLAND NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND AND THEN WEST

INTO CENTRAL HUDSON BAY.



AT THE SURFACE, 998 MB LOW SITS ALONG THE ALASKA/YUKON BORDER WITH A

WARM FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES,

NORTHWEST ALBERTA, AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA INTERIOR. A BROAD AREA OF

HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WITH RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE

CANADIAN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO, THROUGH MAINLAND NUNAVUT AND NORTHWEST

TERRITORIES, AND THEN SOUTH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA BORDER.

THE ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER VICTORIA ISLAND AND EASTERN

NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, CUTS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA, THEN LIFTS

BACK NORTH OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY AND ARCS NORTHEAST OVER BAFFIN

ISLAND'S CUMBERLAND PENINSULA. EAST OF THIS, A 989 MB LOW SITS

ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF JAMES BAY WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL WAVE TO

ITS EAST OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC; IT HAS A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS

SOUTHWEST AND A WARM FRONT EAST. NORTH OF THIS, AN OCCLUDED 993 MB

LOW SITS OVER UNGAVA BAY AS IT TRACKS WEST.



DISCUSSION...



WESTERN PRAIRIES...ONE MORE DAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE

UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS.



THUNDERSTORM RISK IN WEST CENTRAL REGIONS TOMORROW.



EASTERN PRAIRIES...SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH

THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MUCH OF MANITOBA TODAY

AS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD SLUMPS THROUGH THE REGION IN THE COOL

NORTHERLY FLOW. DRIER AIR FROM THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY

INTRUDE INTO THE REGION, DIMINISHING THE LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY ACROSS

THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.



NT...A LOW MOVING IN FROM THE YUKON WILL BRING SOME STRONG WINDS AND

PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TERRITORY BEGINNING LATER

TODAY. MODERATE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60 KM/H ARE EXPECTED THIS

AFTERNOON WEST OF GREAT BEAR LAKE. TONIGHT, STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP

AT A FEW COASTAL COMMUNITIES. FIRST, PAULATUK WILL SEE STRONG

SOUTHERLIES, WHICH COULD GUST IN EXCESS OF 90 KM/H. ADDITIONALLY,

BOTH SACHS HARBOUR AND ULUKHAKTOK WILL SEE SIMILARLY STRONG WINDS,

BUT WITH THE ADDITIONAL HAZARD OF FALLING SNOW. WITH TEMPERATURES

BELOW (BUT NEARING) ZERO DEGREES, POOR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE

CONFINED TO WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS AND FALLING SNOW OVERLAP.

AS SUCH, A PROLONGED BLIZZARD EVENT IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED,

ALTHOUGH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST. WIND AND/OR

BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR THESE SITES.



NU...WAVES OF LIGHT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OVER

SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE UNGAVA LOW

PASSES AND THE JAMES BAY LOW FOLLOWS UP AND LIFTS INTO THE REGION.

THE ONLY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS A

NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF SNOW TRACKING WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND

THAT WILL SPREAD WEST INTO SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND AND NORTH OVER BAFFIN

ISLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES AND

ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT EXCEED MORE THAN A FEW CENTIMETRES IN ANY

TOWNSITES. MILD TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN MELT THE SNOW THAT FALLS.



WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE LOW COMPLEX

IMPACTING SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND, THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL

LIKELY STAY SUB-SEVERE IN ALL TOWNSITES. FOR IQALUIT, EASTERLY WINDS

UP TO 40 GUSTING 60 ARE MOST LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED GUSTS

IN THE 70 TO 80 KM/H RANGE EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN PANGNIRTUNG, WINDS OF

30 TO 40 KM/H WILL BE COMMONPLACE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GUSTS

GENERALLY UP TO 60 KM/H, BUT LATER WEDNESDAY THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF

70 TO 80 KM/H WILL DEVELOP. LOW-LEVEL FLOWS HAVE A HIGHER

SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THAT WILL LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE

CROSS-BARRIER FLOW; THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE OCCURRENCE OF A STRONGER

DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT FOR THE COMMUNITY. WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH

THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION.



FURTHER WEST, BREEZY NORTHERLIES OF 40 TO 50 KM/H WILL DEVELOP ACROSS

THE NORTHERN KIVALLIQ, BUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED FRESH

SNOW WILL LIMIT THE BLOWING SNOW RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.



END/VROLIJK/GERGELY