FOCN45 CWWG 021300

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM

PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CST MONDAY

FEBRUARY 2 2026.



ALERTS IN EFFECT...FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA.



SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT THIS MORNING, A ZONAL FLOW SITS OVER

WESTERN CANADA, DIPPING INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SIT IN THE FLOW, ONE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN

AND ANOTHER OVER NW ONTARIO. IN THE ARCTIC, THE POLAR VORTEX SITS

OVER THE EASTERN CANADIAN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO; A BROAD CYCLONIC

CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTHERN ARCTIC WHILE A STRONG ZONAL FLOW

SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN ARCTIC.



AT THE SURFACE, THE PACIFIC FRONT RUNS ACROSS NORTHERN BRITISH

COLUMBIA, DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ALBERTA TO A 1014 MB LOW OVER

SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN THEN CONTINUES SOUTHEAST. FURTHER EAST, A 1010

MB LOW SITS OVER JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHWEST

INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THEN CURLS BACK NORTH THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN

AND INTO THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND A WARM FRONT THAT DROPS

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO. A 1029 MB HIGH SITS NORTH OF THE

COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH RIDING SOUTH INTO THE UNITED

STATE SAND NORTHEAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY TO SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND.

IN THE NORTH, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH OVER THE

ARCTIC OCEAN OVER VICTORIA ISLAND. EAST OF THIS, AN OCCLUDED 1009 MB

LOW SITS BETWEEN TALOYOAK AND ARCTIC BAY; ITS WARM FRONT DROPS

SOUTHWEST TO THE PRAIRIE FRONT AND ITS COLD FRONT SWEEPS WEST ACROSS

THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE

NORTHERN FLANK OF THE ARCTIC LOW, CUTTING ALONG THE NORTHWEST

TERRITORIES COAST TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF ARCTIC BAY, THEN DROPPING

SOUTHEAST.



DISCUSSION...



PRAIRIES...THE WARM FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FREEZING RAIN OVER

PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALBERTA LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.

IN BEHIND, CLEARING SKIES AND FOG PATCHES REMAIN. THE WEATHER WILL

REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM OF

NOTE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED

PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN).



TWO WAVES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PRAIRIES OVER

THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE FIRST WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN

SASKATCHEWAN TODAY, LEAVING BEHIND A FURTHER 1 TO 3 CM OF SNOW OVER

THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE PROVINCE. THE OTHER WAVE OF SNOW WILL

TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA OVERNIGHT INTO

TUESDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUESDAY, LEAVING

BEHIND A COUPLE CENTIMETRES OF SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND

CENTRAL MANITOBA, WHILE A LIGHT DUSTING FALLS OVER THE SOUTH.



AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING MILD

TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH

THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.



ARCTIC...THE ARCTIC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS NORTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND

TODAY, SPREADING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION WITH IT. ACCUMULATIONS

WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OVER THE ISLAND.



FURTHER SOUTH, A WEAK LOW TRACKING ALONG THE 60TH PARALLEL WILL

SPREAD SNOW ACROSS NUNAVUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL TAPER

OFF BY TUESDAY EVENING, LEAVING BEHIND 2 TO 4 CM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

KIVALLIQ.



AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF IN THE KIVALLIQ, MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL

DEVELOP TOWARDS THE KIVALLIQ COAST, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF

BLOWING SNOW TO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL BE TRANSIENT AND WE DON'T

HAVE ANY BLIZZARD CONCERNS FOR THE REGION.



AS THE ARCTIC LOW TRACKS EAST, A SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTH

INTO THE EASTERN ARCTIC, SENDING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE -30S ON

TUESDAY. COUPLED WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 40 KM/H, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL

DIP INTO THE -45 TO -50 RANGE.



END/VROLIJK/PIMISKERN