FNUS28 KWNS 212114

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0413 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Valid 231200Z - 291200Z



A shortwave trough will traverse the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic

regions on Day 3/Monday as an upper level ridge begins to build back

across the western US. Although less intense than the recent

heatwave, this will once again increase surface temperatures, likely

breaking daily records over much of the southern two-thirds of the

western US once again. On Day 5/Wednesday, a potent upper-level

trough approaches the Pacific Northwest and significantly will

dampen the amplitude of the ridge as it moves across the northern

CONUS border on Day 6/Thursday. The jet max will exit the Eastern

Seaboard on Day 7/Friday. While significant uncertainty exists among

forecast guidance beyond this time frame, another western US

transitory ridge will be possible next weekend.



On Day 3/Monday, over the lee side of the central Appalachians,

expect a cold front to sweep across the region. This will deliver

sustained northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph, gusting over 30 mph in

exposed and downslope areas, combined with RHs of 20-30% resulting

in a 40% likelihood of critical conditions. The latest guidance

shows that weaker flow aloft over Wyoming will preclude any

probability of critical conditions there.



On Day 5/Wednesday, as the ridge over the western US breaks down,

warm surface temperatures aided by lee troughing will support a

robust boundary layer, mixing into strong westerly winds associated

with the passing upper-level jet. The latest forecast guidance

indicates sustained west winds of 20-30 mph will combine with RHs of

10-20% at the surface for several hours during the afternoon. Thus,

a 70% area exists for much of east-central Wyoming while 40%

probabilities cover portions of northern Colorado and much of the

Nebraska Panhandle where surface winds are not expected to be as

strong.



On Day 6/Thursday, an area of 40% probability was introduced as a

cold front supported by the aforementioned passing upper-level

trough is expected to surge south across the central and southern

Plains. While uncertainty in the timing and evolution of this cold

front will likely necessitate adjustments to the risk area over the

coming days, the southern High Plains currently stands the best

chance to experience critical fire weather conditions with this

frontal passage.



..Stearns.. 03/21/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$