FNUS28 KWNS 202041

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0339 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Valid 221200Z - 281200Z



Upper ridging is poised to overspread the CONUS through the extended

(Days 3-8) period. Embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the

upper ridge, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the

CONUS (east of the Rockies) early in the week. Thereafter, surface

lee troughing will become established across the Plains, promoting

occasional bouts of dry downslope flow across portions of the High

Plains.



...Day 3/Sunday...

A surface low will encourage dry downslope flow across the southern

High Plains as an approaching cold front sweeps southward across the

central and southern Plains on Sunday. The best chance for

critically dry and windy conditions will be across portions of the

Texas Rolling Plains per latest guidance consensus. However, at

least Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected across

the remainder of the southern High Plains due to dry downslope flow,

and across northern Oklahoma into Kansas behind the cold front.

While temperatures (and thus RH) will be lower in Oklahoma/Kansas

compared to points farther south, very strong northerly surface

winds, potentially exceeding 30 mph in spots, will encourage rapid

wildfire-spread potential given dry fuels.



...Day 4/Monday...

The surface cold front will sweep across the East Coast while

surface lee troughing continues across the High Plains on Monday. 40

percent Critical probabilities remain in place across southern

Virginia into northern South Carolina, where guidance consensus

continues to show a dry and breezy post-cold-frontal environment

over dry fuels. Dry downslope flow will also promote dry and windy

conditions across southern Wyoming, warranting the continuation of

40 percent Critical probabilities here as well.



...Day 6/Wednesday...

The next chance for appreciable wildfire-spread potential will be on

Wednesday across portions of Wyoming and immediate surrounding

areas. A mid-level impulse will traverse the region, enhancing

downslope flow and supporting dry/windy conditions for several hours

Wednesday afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities were

introduced given multiple preceding days of no rainfall and

dry/windy conditions, which will further cure fuels that are already

receptive to fire spread.



..Squitieri.. 03/20/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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